For the first time in NFL history, there were six QBs taken in the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix was the sixth. This study will take a closer look at how Nix compares to the other five quarterbacks who were picked before him.
To see how those six compare to other passers over the last two seasons, follow this link. Only Bo Nix and Caleb Williams have started every regular season game for their team over the last two seasons.
- Caleb Williams (1st overall)
- Jayden Daniels (2nd overall)
- Drake Maye (3rd overall)
- Michael Penix (8th overall)
- JJ McCarthy (10th overall)
- Bo Nix (12th overall)
The next QB in 2024 would not be picked until the fifth round (150th): Spencer Rattler. With 16 games started, Rattler has six more than JJ McCarthy, who missed the entire 2024 season with injury.
Comparing the Class of 2024 QBs (top 6 QBs taken) in terms of standard passing stats so far in their careers. pic.twitter.com/5sHCC4Rqtz
— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) August 18, 2026
Bo Nix needs to improve to best Drake Maye for the head of the class of 2024
Bo Nix is 3rd among the six in terms of passer rating, the mostly inscrutable stat developed before the cordless phone and the iPod (158.3 is the highest possible passer rating in the NFL). Drake Maye leads the six in career passer rating so far at 103.1. Among qualifying QBs, Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers are tied for career passing rating lead at 102.2.
They are followed by Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Deshaun Watson is currently sixth. Wilson, for Hall of Fame supporters, will use this and "his" Super Bowl win as two of the main points to get the unworthy QB into the Hall of Fame.
Bo Nix leads the class of 2024 in TD passes at 54, but he also has the most attempts with 1179. His completion percentage is third behind Maye (69.8 percent) and Daniels (66.6 percent). Nix's interception rate is fourth, with only Maye and McCarthy worse - although JJ McCarthy is significantly worse than the other five with a career interception rate of 4.9 percent.
Nix leads the group in ability to avoid sacks with a career sack percentage of 3.8 percent. McCarthy has been sacked on 10 percent of his career dropbacks. The career leader in lowest sack percentage is a tie between Peyton Manning and Dan Marino at 3.13 percent. George Blanda doesn't count because sacks were not even counted in the 1950s in the NFL. Nix does not have the minimum 1550 passing attempts to show up on the career list (yet).
Barring injury, he will surpass that this season. However, he will not be in the top five at that point because of two good, but not great, QBs, Doug Williams (3.24) and Mark Rypien (3.58). Not surprisingly, Nix currently has a career sack rate that is comparable to Drew Brees (3.83 percent).
for another upcoming @PredomOrange article pic.twitter.com/DUOfWc8Tmk
— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) August 18, 2026
Nix leads the class in passing yards per game, team wins (which are not a QB stat), fourth-quarter comebacks, and game-winning drives. Nix is last in yards per completion. He is fourth in success rate on passes. Success on a pass means gaining 40 percent of the needed yards on first down, 60 percent of the needed yards on second down, and converting on third or fourth down.
Comparing the year over year change in passing success rate from the class of 2024 QBs. Maye made a huge jump in his second season while Daniels regressed. The others showed normal rookie to second year progress. pic.twitter.com/EUnOE0Qxs2
— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) August 18, 2026
Drake Maye went from average in passing success rate in 2024 to near the top of the league in 2025. Only Brock Purdy at 55.3 percent was better among starting QBs in 2025. League average was 45.2, which is almost exactly where Bo Nix ended 2025.
As of right now, five of the six Class of 2024 QBs are set to be the starters for their respective teams, with McCarthy as the only exception. He is currently slated to back up former #1 overall pick Kyler Murray.
Comparing recent QBs progress (or regression) during their first three starting szns in terms of passing success rate - Josh Allen made crazy progress, but Mahomes was elite from the start. pic.twitter.com/tPGUt6CvyH
— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) August 18, 2026
In general, starting QBs increase their passing success rate gradually during their first three or four seasons in the NFL. For this group, the average was +2.8 in terms of success percentage in terms of the third season relative to the first season. This would mean that Nix would jump to 46.5 if he follows the trend of these other recent starting QBs.
Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and CJ Stroud all regressed in their third season relative to their first. 2019 was used as Jackson's first starting season even though he started seven games in 2018. Using 2018 as his first season, makes him look better as he went from 43.5 to 46.2.
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