Bo Nix has been even better when trailing in the 4th quarter than realized

In 2025, the Denver Broncos had 15 drives in the 4th quarter when trailing by one score, and Bo Nix led the team to a score on 9 of those - 60 percent.

The only team that got a score on a higher percentage was the Bills, who scored on 8 of 12; 67 percent. The Eagles scored on 1 of 13.

If you look at Nix's career at this point, he has had 31 chances to lead a 4th-quarter drive when trailing by 8 or fewer points (one score). Sixteen of those drives have ended in a score - 52 percent. That is 7th best for the 2024 to 2026 timeframe. The Bills are the best over that time with scores on 15 of 25 drives - 60 percent. The Titans are the worst, with scores on only 6 of 34; 18 percent.

Bo Nix has been amazing when trailing in the 4th quarter

The generally accepted definition of a fourth-quarter comeback (4QC) is a drive to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter or OT when the team is down by one score. The team must go on to win the game.

Leading a 4QC in a game when the defense loses it in the end negates the 4QC statistically. A game-winning drive (GWD) also has to be in a game where the QB's team wins (obviously). GWD has to occur in the 4th quarter or OT, but the team can be tied. A GWD is also a 4QC, but a 4QC is not a GWD if the game ends in a tie and a GWD is not a 4QC if the teams are tied at the start of the drive. Bo Nix has been great insofar as he has taken advantage of the myriad opportunities that he has had to lead both 4QCs and GWD in his young career.

Right now in the NFL, there is no QB who is better at leading 4QCs, and Nix has an amazingly high rate of 4QCs. Nix has started 37 games so far in his NFL career and has led 10 4QCs. He also has 12 GWD in those starts. With a minimum of 10 GS, Nix has the second-best career GWD rate at 0.324; 32.4 percent of his starts he has led a game-winning drive.

Only Don Strock has a higher career value at 36.4 percent (8 GWD in 22 GS). Nix's 4QC rate is the highest in NFL history (min 10 GS) at 27 percent.

Among Hall of Fame or future Hall of Fame QBs, Johnny Unitas has the highest 4QC rate at 18.6 percent, while Ben Roethlisberger has the highest GWD rate at 21.5 percent. Among active QBs, Matthew Stafford has the most 4QC and GWD with 39 and 50. He came very close to getting another of both on Sunday night in Denver.

The active QB with the lowest rate of both is Drake Maye. He has one 4QC and 2 GWD in 32 career starts so far. However, he had only 7 drives last season where his team was trailing by one score in the 4th quarter; three ended with scores. Seven was the fewest number of drives in those situations last season, meaning that it was exceedingly rare in 2025 for the Patriots to be trailing by one score in the 4th quarter.

It was seemingly every game for the Broncos over the last 20 regular seaosn games.

The data from the Hall of Fame QBs indicates that these QBs did not need to lead many 4QC or GWD. Tom Brady has the most of both in his career with 46 4QC and 58 GWD, but he did that in 333 GS. That gives him a 4QC rate of 13.8 percent and a GWD rate of 17.4 percent. The missing piece of data is how many opprtunities had did or did not have to lead these drives in his long career; he generally played for teams with good to great defenses.

While Bo Nix has had 31 chances to lead a 4QC drive, Tom Brady (with the exception of the year that he missed with injury) had roughly 181 chances during his 19 years as the starting QB for the Patriots. He led scoring drives on 78 of those - 43.1 percent.

In the three seasons when he was starting for the Bucs, the Patriots scored on 30 percent of their 4QC drives. Brady led the Bucs to scores on 59 percent of their 4QC drives. Most would argue that Tom Brady was one of the best, if not the best QB in NFL history when trailing late. John Elway had a comparable 4QC and GWD rate to Tom Brady, but I know that Elway lost quite a few 4QCs when the Broncos' defense blew a lead that he got the team in the 4th quarter.

Two examples of this are the loss to the Giants in the 1986 regular season and the loss to the Chiefs (and Joe Montana) in the 1994 season.

The hope for the Broncos is that the offense becomes more consistent in the near future so that Nix does not have to lead 4QCs. Truly great NFL teams get leads early in the game and hold onto them, as the 1997 and 1998 Broncos did. Elway started 26 games over those two seasons and led exactly two 4QCs. Elway's most prolific season for both was 1985 when he had six of both. The only regular season when he didn't lead a 4QC was 1997.

He did lead one in the playoffs that year, which we all should remember fondly (if we are old enough to remember).

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