The Buffalo Bills have turned into a playoff juggernaut, and much of the national chatter has been how the Bills are going to win it all since they don't have to go through the Kansas City Chiefs. However, they do have to go through the Denver Broncos.
There are some weaknesses with the Bills that the Broncos can expose, and if they do it well, this game is going to end up how Denver wants. Ideally, the Broncos hone in on these three things in the Divisional Round.
Let's break it down here.
Three weaknesses the Denver Broncos must take advantage of in the Divisional
Third down percentage
The Buffalo Bills have allowed opponents to convert 41.98% of their third downs this year, which is the 9th-worst mark in the NFL. Conversely, the Denver Broncos have converted 41.20% of their third downs, which is the 11th-best mark in the NFL.
The 'money' downs in the NFL, especially in the playoffs, are third and fourth downs. I really don't need to lecture on why being clutch on third down is so important, as the Broncos and Bills figure to be in a back-and-forth game, and the winner might be the team that makes the fewest mistakes or makes the most clutch plays late in the game.
Being strong on third down should be attainable since Buffalo has a below-average third down defense.
Rushing defense
The Buffalo Bills gave up the 5th-most rushing yards in the NFL in the regular season and allowed the 3rd-highest opponent yards per carry. Even in their win in the Wild Card Round, Buffalo surrendered 154 yards on the ground.
The Broncos won't have JK Dobbins in this game, and the run game has suffered without him, but we have seen both RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin get going at times, and there really isn't much of a choice here - the Broncos have to pound the rock and take advantage of a weaker run defense. This would allow them to extend drives and keep Josh Allen and the Bills' offense off the field.
Decimated WR room
The Buffalo Bills lost Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to season-ending injuries in the Wild Card Round. At this point, the top three WRs on the team are Khalil Shakir, who isn't a no.1, Brandin Cooks, a veteran who wasn't on the team at the beginning of the season, and Keon Coleman, a second-year player who has been a healthy inactive multiple times this year.
This WR room could really allow Denver to sell-out a bit to stop the run, as they should not be a threat through the air. The Broncos could perhaps have a lot of four defensive back defensive looks, allowing for more DL players to hopefully stop James Cook and the rushing offense.
Additionally, there is surely going to be a time during the game where Josh Allen has to get the ball down the field, so the ideal scenario here is this decimated WR room just simply isn't able to get separation.