The Denver Broncos are hosting the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round on Saturday. A win over Buffalo gets Denver one step closer to Super Bowl LX, and if the Broncos win, they will host the winner of the Texans-Patriots game.
There is a formula for Denver to win this game, and it's doable. Sure, Buffalo may feel like a juggernaut, but Denver is better, period.
Let's identify the three things the Broncos must do in order to beat the Bills.
Here is how the Denver Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round
Keep James Cook to 75 yards or under
I did some math on Bills' running back, James Cook. Here are his per-game statistics in wins and losses this year, including the playoffs:
Wins: 18.6 attempts per game, 99.1 yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry
Losses: 16.4 attempts per game, 75.8 yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry
It's pretty clear what the Broncos have to do here - if James Cook is held around the 75-yard mark, Denver is going to win this one. The Bills are a bit one-dimensional with how beat-up the WR room is, so everyone is expecting James Cook to get a ton of carries.
It would not shock me if, ideally, the Bills wanted to give him at least 25 carries. Denver being able to limit the explosive runs and being able to get bodies on him close to the line of scrimmage is a huge factor in their chances.
Contain Dalton Kincaid
It's almost hard to believe this efficiency, but Dalton Kincaid has a passer rating of 149.2 when targeted this year. He's amassed 39 receptions for 571 yards on just 49 targets. He had just one drop, 259 yards after the catch, and 27 first downs. With the Buffalo Bills not having much of a threat at WR heading into this game, they will entrust the running game and tight ends a lot more.
Being able to limit James Cook and potentially limit what Kincaid can do will just about guarantee a Broncos' victory. Kincaid is their best tight end and arguably their best pass-catcher. Keeping him under control and limiting him to fewer than five receptions is huge.
No slow starts on offense!
This is an obvious one, as the Denver Broncos have gotten out to slow starts on offense quite a bit this year. The team typically turns it on in the second half, but that's not really something that can happen in the Divisional Round. Denver may not have to score more than 23, 24 points to win, but displaying more consistency across the entirety of the game will allow the Broncos a bit larger of a margin for error, and it'll allow the team to play complementary football as well.