Dating back to the start of the 2024 season, the Broncos have had massive struggles in one key type of NFL game: one-score games. Since last season began, the Broncos are now a staggering 2-9 in one-possession games, several of which they should have come out victorious. Whether it is self-inflicted or not, the Broncos are struggling to win close games.
If Denver had simply won one more of those games last year, it would have ended with 11 wins. Let's say they hang on to knock off the Chargers the last two years in SoFi Stadium. Denver heads to Houston instead of Buffalo in the AFC playoffs in 2024, and would currently be in first place in the AFC West.
With a now 1-2 record both on the season and in one-score games this year, Denver is going to need to do much better in close games if they want to make any noise in the AFC this season. Considering Denver's only wins in those games the last two seasons were a terrible Jets team and now a terrible Titans team, this might be Denver's biggest area of need so far.
Denver needs to improve on one-score games, and fast
For a moment, lets say the Broncos nail their game winning kick in Kansas City last year, hang on to beat the Chargers this year, and win in Cincinatti last year. Denver goes 12-5 last year instead of 10-5, and sits at 2-1 this year instead of 1-2. Denver would have been the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs, and would currently be in first place in the AFC West with at least a split of the season series against the Chargers.
Instead of being 14-6 the last two seasons, Denver is 11-9. Instead of being in first place, Denver now finds itself two games back already, and in need of a win over the Chargers in Week 18 to at least split the season series. Instead of building upon their strong 2024 season and making a move in 2025, the Broncos find themselves desperately needing to right the ship - and fast.
Denver will get a chance to make up some ground in the conference with a banged-up Bengals team this week before heading out to Philadelphia to meet the defending champions. If the odds play the way many expect them to, Denver should sit at 2-3 entering the softer part of their schedule. If the Broncos are unable to win close games over that stretch, it might be time to start looking towards 2026 and beyond, and the job security of Sean Payton.