The Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday in the most unlikely circumstances. During one of the last plays of overtime in the Divisional Round, Bo Nix broke his ankle. Now with Jarrett Stidham in the mix, the Broncos are trying to do the impossible.
However, the game is very likely going to be back-and-forth, and there might not be a path for the Patriots, led by MVP-candidate Drake Maye, to open this thing up and run away as the game goes on. Even the Buffalo Bills could not do this with a high-powered rushing attack that the Broncos simply could not stop.
But when you peel this thing back and look at all the layers, the Broncos might actually have the Patriots right where they want them ahead of this massive AFC title game.
The Denver Broncos have the Patriots in a perfect spot ahead of the AFC title game
There are a few reasons why the Broncos have the Patriots in an ideal spot. Firstly and perhaps the most obvious reason is that Denver has to start Jarrett Stidham, who has been the team's backup QB for three years now. At this point, there is an element of this being a 'trap game' or the sort of 'backs against the wall' story that goes in the Broncos favor.
The flip side of this is "there is no way the Patriots lose to a backup quarterback, right?"
Well, you just never know. Secondly, there really isn't much film at all on Stidham, so this could put the Patriots defense in a bind, as they might not know what Stidham and the Broncos offense may do. On the flip side, the Pats' offense has struggled a bit, as Drake Maye has been sacked 10 times and fumbled six times in two playoff games.
Both games came against top-notch defenses in Los Angeles and Houston, but both were at home. Heading to Denver is a totally different animal, as the Broncos pass rush is the best in the league, and the home-field advantage in Denver is second to none.
The Broncos could also see the return of two key starters in Luke Wattenberg and JK Dobbins, so this could provide a spark in the run game as well. Not only that, but the Patriots have to fly across the country as well, so the jet leg and minimal exposure at altitude is going to hurt their chances.
Sure, the Patriots can absolutely win this game, so let's get that out of the way, but there are some factors here that put New England back against the wall and could perhaps swing the game in Denver's favor.