The Broncos could trade wins for legitimacy in the 2026 NFL Season

A better overall team may mean a harder reality for the Denver Broncos this upcoming season. Improvement should be expected in every aspect, except for maybe the win-loss column. Head coach Sean Payton himself also understands this:

"From my lens, we won a lot of games by one score or less. And I'm not naive enough to think those games couldn't have swung," -- Sean Payton

The Broncos had 14 wins last season, 11 of which were by one score. The Broncos were a handful of last-minute comebacks and big breaks away from playing on Wild Card Weekend, instead of resting up during a bye before facing Josh Allen and the Bills on their home turf for the Divisional round.

The Denver Broncos' record may decline, but not their contender status

The reality is that the Broncos are a prime candidate to regress next season, but not in the way you may think. Not in the same fashion as the Washington Commanders, going from 12-5 in 2024, to 5-12 in 2025. Or the Kansas City Chiefs, winning 15 games in 2024, while just 6 games in 2025.

It's plain and simple: Denver won too many close games last season. Too many against opponents that left you scratching your head.

A magical 33 points scored in the fourth quarter against the Giants, and an overtime thriller in Washington against a Marcus Mariota-led team that went blow-for-blow, resulting in a last-second win due to the right hand of Nik Bonitto, are amongst the games where it felt like "that shouldn't have happened."

Washington and New York combined for a 9-25 record last season. It felt like Denver was playing with their food too many times. Remember that Thursday night snooze fest against Las Vegas? The game you woke up 2 hours earlier than normal to watch that resulted in a 13-11 win against the Jets?

Yeah, it's hard to argue Denver was taking care of business in the way a Super Bowl contender would.

2-3 fewer wins isn't necessarily a bad thing for Denver

So what exactly are we getting at here? Well, the Broncos won't have much room for error in 2026. Not the playing with your food for three-quarters type of error.

But given how Denver's schedule shaped out, and their history of slow starts, they could be facing the same amount of losses they had last year before their bye week this year. Especially when you take a gander at the first six weeks.

The difference is that three losses can be regarded as more respectable, especially if they end in a close loss against Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. A close loss against the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. Shanahan and the 49ers. If Denver is going blow-for-blow with Super Bowl contenders instead of bottom feeders, it's easier to get on board with the team's overall outlook going forward.

"It’s all about surviving the start, getting fat on snacks before finishing with the Bills, Patriots and Chargers," said long-time columnist Troy Renck of The Denver Post. "The Broncos will be a better team with a worse record."

The so-called "gauntlet" to start the season will be positive for Denver. The Broncos were battle-tested with close games week in and week out, which propelled them to 14 wins last season. That same process of thinking can be applied to playing contenders week in and week out. Denver should be better prepared to face teams such as Buffalo and New England late in the season.

Finishing the season with 11-12 wins, games resulting in heartbreakers against the league's best, while displaying a clear improvement on offense, backed by a top defense in the league every week, would, and should, keep Denver in Super Bowl conversations. Not just through the world of social media, but because that's where the Broncos would belong.

With that being said, the goal stays the same. Every week is a must-win, and it should end that way. The expectation for a Super Bowl contender is to beat everyone on any given week.

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