Predicting which Denver Broncos player will be drafted first in fantasy football

It's getting to that time of year when patiently waiting for the regular season to arrive is no longer a viable option. Luckily for Denver Broncos fans, there are plenty of headlines to discuss.

The latest Russell Wilson workout video looks encouraging, an icy new helmet is on the way, and rookies recently reported to training camp. No question, that's all very exciting.

But there's a particular storyline sweeping through Broncos Country, one that's captivated the minds of fans worldwide: which Bronco will be first off the board in upcoming fantasy football drafts, Jerry Jeudy or Javonte Williams?

Let's explore.

The Case for Jeudy

If there was an appearance fee for showing up on articles titled, "Players most likely to break out ahead of the 2023-24 NFL season," Denver Broncos wideout Jerry Jeudy might not need to sign another professional contract.

On one hand, the recognition is a testament to Jeudy's remarkable talent and remaining untapped potential. But on the other, more eyes mean higher expectations, coupled with a less forgiving response if his season doesn't go according to plan.

From a fantasy perspective, being considered a breakout candidate is tantamount to a curse. Currently, Jeudy has an expert consensus ranking of WR22, and an average draft position (ADP) of 57th overall, which falls in the late-fifth round of 12-team leagues.

Last year, in the circus that was the 2022-23 Broncos offense, Jeudy recorded 972 yards and six touchdowns on 67 receptions. This line is certainly respectable, but improvable. Now, with a Hall of Fame play caller, reinforced offensive line, and a hopefully resurgent Russell Wilson, there's no reason Jeudy can't finish as a top 15 receiver in this offense.

Since 2013, Russell Wilson has produced a top-24 fantasy receiver seven times, and a top-12 finisher on five occasions. Combine that with Sean Payton's offensive prowess, and the case is real strong for Jeudy to be the first Bronco to go in fantasy drafts.

The Case for Williams

Before suffering a devastating injury to his ACL, LCL, and PCL in week 4 of last season, running back Javonte Williams was the subject of similar breakout talk heading into last year.

As such, the hype propelled the former Tar Heel up the draft boards to an ADP of 26th overall. That's roster cornerstone territory right there.

Coming off a very serious injury, his ADP is nowhere near that lofty price, now settling in at 77th. Don't feel bad about the drop-off, be excited for the possible elite value that awaits. According to a report from ESPN's Jeff Legwold, Williams feels 'ready to go' for the start of the season and intends to be cleared by the Broncos' medical staff before training camp.

Of course, expectations will have to be tempered, but this is outstanding news from both a fantasy and real-world perspective.

Last season, we saw Baltimore Ravens RB JK Dobbins return from a similar injury and it, understandably, took quite some time to regain his explosiveness. However, in Williams' case, with an ADP in the mid-seventh round, fantasy managers can afford to exercise some patience while Williams returns to his dominant form.

Over his time with the Saints, Coach Payton called pass plays 59% of the time. Obviously, that number had a lot to do with the quarterback, but it also changed as the offensive personnel did. Once the Drew Brees era was nearing its end, Payton's offense saw more balance, and the run game became noticeably more prominent.

Payton's run scheme employs multiple backs at a time, which usually means 'stay away' in fantasy language. However, such a system will only improve Williams' late-season value, potentially turning him into a league winner come playoff time.

Final Verdict

Based on the evidence, it seems Jerry Jeudy will be the first Bronco drafted come fantasy season.

ADP may have given that away, but in all honesty, it's not that important of a figure. Despite Williams playing the more valuable position, I went with Jeudy for two reasons:

1. Number one receivers fare well under Payton and Wilson

2. I believe the breakout is coming this season, meaning that a late-fifth-round price tag will most likely yield a third-round return.

Now, were Williams not coming off a significant injury, he would be the obvious choice based on past production, positional value, and double-digit touchdown potential. Unfortunately, that is not the case.

Right now, Jeudy is a near slam dunk to be the first Bronco to have his name called by fantasy managers.