The Broncos are currently 3.5 games up on the Chiefs in the AFC West, but Denver has played one more game thus far, as KC is coming off their bye before the Week 11 showdown. This game, for the Broncos at least, has been packaged by many as the biggest in the post-Super Bowl 50 era, and I believe that is an accurate statement.
It's not hard to see how Denver puts itself in a marvelous position with a win, as KC drops to 5-5 and Denver improves to 9-2. A 4.5-game lead would be nearly-impossible for the Chiefs to overcome, but the Broncos do have some tougher opponents on the schedule to close out the season.
Conversely, the Chiefs don't seem to have a tough slate, so some have been buying into the idea that KC makes a run, but this team is 5-4 for a reason, and they're also 0-4 in one-score games, so this isn't the same Chiefs' team we are accustomed to seeing. Well, a recent record prediction is buying into the Chiefs making a run.
Broncos projected to finish 12-5, but lose the AFC West to the Chiefs
Here is Ali Bhanpuri on NFL.com and his reasoning for his Broncos and Chiefs predictions:
Projected record through Week 10: 6-4
Denver's actual record: 8-2
Games correct: 6 of 10
I was right about ... the Broncos being as talented as they've been in at least a decade.
I was wrong about ... them losing at the Giants in Week 7. However, I take solace in knowing Denver needed a historic 33-point fourth-quarter comeback to prove me wrong.
Second-half double down
The Broncos are very good, and, as I wrote in August, have the potential to do real damage in the postseason. But the current AFC West leaders punch their ticket into the tournament as a wild card -- not as division champs.
Final projection
Record: 12-5 (previous projection: 11-6)
Division finish: 2nd (previous: same)
Will the Broncos make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 6 seed.
Projected record through Week 10: 7-2
Kansas City's actual record: 5-4
Games correct: 5 of 9
I was right about ... the Chiefs losing their fifth straight regular-season game to the Bills.
I was wrong about ... Week 4 vs. the Ravens. In hindsight, probably a bit overzealous of me to underestimate the reigning AFC champs at home. Even if Lamar Jackson hadn't exited early with a hamstring injury, the Chiefs were the superior team that Sunday afternoon, outclassing a Baltimore squad that wasn't quite right out of the gate.
Second-half double down
Despite entering Week 11 three wins shy of the Broncos' total and sitting third in the division, Kansas City stacks enough victories down the stretch -- including both tilts with Denver -- to capture its 10th consecutive AFC West title.
Final projection
Record: 13-4 (previous projection: 12-5)
Division finish: 1st (previous: same)
Will the Chiefs make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 1 seed.
The one thing I take issue with here is his prediction of the Chiefs winning their final eight games of the regular season. To me, that is overkill. As I just stated, the Chiefs are 5-4 for a reason and are 0-4 in one-score games. The slim margins that benefitted them in 2024 just aren't there anymore, and talent-wise, this roster is truly nothing special.
His prediction of Denver finishing 12-5 is not outrageous by any means - this would give the Broncos a 4-3 record to end the season, and Denver still has to play the Chiefs twice, Chargers and Raiders once, and the Jaguars, Commanders, and Packers.
There are some tougher games remaining, so another three losses feels semi-realistic, but in my opinion, his prediction of the Chiefs finishing 13-4 is just a bit too much.