The Denver Broncos have shocked the NFL world in the last two seasons, breaking out for the first time in 2024 and then doubling down on that in 2025, somehow finding a way to win four more games. As of now, the Broncos are one of the very best clubs in the NFL and have a shot to again capture the AFC West title.
However, the AFC West might not be an easy division to win if the Kansas City Chiefs figure things out. The Los Angeles Chargers have won 11 games in each of the past two seasons, but really haven't done anything to take that next step.
Still, though, some are still doubting the Broncos and are predicting a regression. The latest prediction further proves that people just have not learned their lesson with the team.
Denver Broncos predicted to lose fewer games and not win the AFC West in 2026
For Bleacher Report, Moe Moton talked about his reasoning for the Broncos finishing 11-6 in 2026 and losing the AFC West race to the Chargers:
"The Denver Broncos had a quiet offseason until they traded for Jaylen Waddle, who will provide an immediate spark to their passing attack.
In five years with the Miami Dolphins, the 27-year-old didn't produce at the level of the league's elite wide receivers. However, he will play in a more stable offensive system with ascending quarterback Bo Nix under head coach Sean Payton.
Don't be surprised if Waddle posts career numbers in Denver's offense.
Otherwise, the Broncos haven't changed much of their roster from the previous campaign. They have continuity across their offensive line, a strong positive for Nix in his third year. The club's top-three scoring defense and total defense from the previous year remain mostly intact.
Even with a first-place schedule, the battle-tested Broncos will win double-digit games, but don't expect them to sweep the Kansas City Chiefs again if Patrick Mahomes is healthy for both outings or win just about every one-score game as they did last year.
2026 projection: 11-6"
Jaylen Waddle did have 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns for the Miami Dolphins in 2022, which does feel like elite production. Moton also says that we should not be surprised if Waddle posts career numbers with the Broncos.
That, in theory, would likely mean Waddle hits the 1,400-yard mark and has double-digit touchdowns, which would absolutely be elite production. Overall, the argument from Moton seems to largely be with the one-score games that Denver won in 2025.
The main issue here, for the detractors, is that winning in close fashion is much more sustainable than winning in blowout fashion. In 2024, the Broncos struggled big-time in one-score games but did blowout several opponents.
In 2025, the Broncos were a much more complete team, and, unsurprisingly, did better in one-score games but did not have many blowouts. With how talented teams are, winning close happens weekly, and with the Broncos excelling at this in 2025, it's hard to imagine that success disappearing in 2026.
I also struggle to see why the Chargers would be predicted to win more games - this team lost a top-3 defensive coordinator in Jesse Minter to the Baltimore Ravens head coaching job, and somehow still left some meat on the bone in improving the offensive line.
People may not want to truly believe that the Broncos are a juggernaut in every sense of the word. This team didn't just win 14 games in the regular season for no reason. Sure, while hitting that 14-win total in 2026 might be quite hard, there is absolutely a path for a 12-ish win season and a second-straight AFC West title.
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