History tells us the Broncos improving their record in 2026 is all but impossible

Three teams went 14-3 during the 2025 NFL season: the Broncos, the Patriots, and the Seahawks. Those also happened to be three of the four teams to make the Championship games last season.

From 1978 to 2020, the NFL played 16 regular season games. Of the 36 teams to win 14 or more regular season games, six of them have been since the move to 17 games.

Many seasons had no teams with 14 or more wins; since the merger, there have been 28 such seasons. There have been four seasons with two teams that won 14 or more: 1984, 1986, 2004, and 2024.

Denver Broncos facing long odds to improve upon (or repeat) their 14 wins in 2026

Admittedly, with an extra regular season game, it is easier to win 14 than when you only play 16. In the 50 seasons between the merger and the shift to 17 games, there were only 30 teams to win 14. There have been six in the five seasons since. 1984 had the 49ers and the Dolphins. 1986 had the Bears and the Giants. 2004 had the Steelers and the Patriots. 2024 had the Chiefs and the Lions.

The 1998 and 1999 seasons are a bad omen for the Broncos in 2026. The 1998 Broncos won 14 games and the Super Bowl. The 1999 Broncos went 6-10 and missed the playoffs, but the eight-game slide in wins is not the worst since the merger for a 14-or-more-win team. Three teams lost 9 more games in the following season: the 98-99 Falcons, 15-16 Panthers, 24-25 Chiefs.

The Falcons went from 14-2 to 5-11. The Panthers went from 15-1 to 6-10, and the Chiefs went from 15-2 to 6-11. Last season was both delicious (until Bo Nix' injury) and schaudenfreudelicious for Broncos fans.

On average the 33 teams from 1970 to 2024 lost four more games the following season. That means that they went from 14-2 to 10-6 on average. No team won more than they did the previous season. The recent teams did this:

Recent 14-or-more-win teams in the NFL

- 2015 Panthers went 15-1. 2016 Panthers went 6-10.
- 2016 Patriots went 14-2. 2017 Patriots went 13-3 and won SB.
- 2019 Ravens went 14-2. 2020 Ravens went 11-5 lost DIV.
- 2020 Chiefs went 14-2. 2021 Chiefs went 12-5 and lost AFCC.
- 2022 Eagles went 14-3. 2023 Eagles went 11-6 and lost WC.
- 2024 Chiefs went 15-2. 2025 Chiefs went 6-11.

Four of the six recent teams made the playoffs the following season, but only one made it to the Super Bowl (the 2017 Patriots made it there and won it).

The 2019-2020 Ravens and the 2022-2023 Eagles have parallels to the 25-26 Broncos. All three teams had young QBs with strong defenses. The 2019 Ravens defense finished 3rd in scoring. The 2022 Eagles defense finished 8th in scoring.

For the Ravens, Lamar Jackson was entering his third season as the Ravens' starting QB (he only started 7 games in 2018). For the Eagles, Jalen Hurts was starting his third full season as their starting QB. He started only four games in 2020. Bo Nix will commence his third season as the Broncos' starting QB in roughly one week.

Recent first-round QBs make the biggest jump in their third season as a starting QB. So Bo Nix could move from the realm of disrespected QBs ("his defense carried him") to an MVP candidate with a "breakout season."

Using the win percentage lens, the league has been "top-heavy" during the last two seasons. There have been only 55 teams since the merger (counting the 1982 strike-shortened season) to win 82% or more of their regular season games. Seven of them have occurred in the last two seasons.

There have been blocks of parity (not to be confused with parody) in the NFL. From 1979-1981 there were no teams that won 82% or more of their regular season games. Similar 1993-1997 and 2012-2014. Those are the only blocks with three or more years without a "dominating team". With two in 2022, four in 2024, and three in 2025, there have been nine of 55 in the last four seasons, or 16 percent.

The 2024 season was the only season in NFL history with four teams that won 82% or more of their regular season games.

On the flip side, there have been 77 teams since the merger with a winning percentage of 18 percent or worse since the merger. The Broncos do not show up on that list. Houston has seen seven of those 77, but four were watching the Oilers, and three were watching the Texans. Tampa Bay has seen six. The Titans have three, so as a franchise, the Oilers/Titans have the most terrible seasons with seven, and it's not even close.

There are six franchises that have four terrible seasons: the Browns, the Lions, the Saints, the Bills, the 49ers, and the Patriots.

Twenty-six franchises have at least one terrible season. The six that don't are the Broncos, the Steelers, the team in Washington DC, the Packers, the Vikings, and the Falcons. Four of those six have won multiple Super Bowls.

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