The Denver Broncos are 2-1 through the first three weeks of the 2026 season, the best September record of the Sean Payton era. That doesn't mean that things don't need cleaned up, though, as the offense in the first half of games is rather pathetic.
The team has struggled to establish the run and has struggled to stop the run at times. Despite the flaws, the late-game heroics are still present, and if 2026 goes as 2025 did, this team could genuinely make a Super Bowl run this year.
But the Broncos do have to get into the playoffs before they can even begin to think about Super Bowl. Shockingly enough, their playoff odds in Week 4, depending on the result, vary more than you think.
Denver Broncos playoff chances could drastically increase (or decrease) in Week 4
In data assembled by Pro Football Reference, which lays out the playoff chances by record in the seven-team playoff format era, which began in 2020, the Broncos 2-1 record gives them a 62 percent chance at the postseason:
Since the NFL changed the playoff system in 2020, 16% (8/51) have made the playoffs from an 0-2 start.
— Ben Rolfe (@BenRolfePFN) September 24, 2026
That number drops to 4% with an 0-3 start (1/25).
You never want to say a Week 3 game is must-win, but the Falcons are very much staring down the barrel tonight pic.twitter.com/eCbDrZglg4
With a win over the 49ers and a 3-1 record, their playoff chances rise to 78 percent, but with a loss and a 2-2 record, their chances would be 39 percent. It's important to note that these percentages are based on the history of teams with these records from 2020-2025, not necessarily the current playoff odds.
Both methods are valuable, but there is a difference. Furthermore, the 2021 season was the first year the NFL rolled out the 17-game regular season, so we have to keep that in mind as well. What is rather objective here is just how much better of a chance the Broncos have with a win.
Now yes, you might be thinking to yourself that the Broncos were 2-2 in both 2024 and 2025 and made the playoffs, so, technically, they 'defied the odds' a bit and got into the postseason, but this should also make you wonder just how much easier Denver can make their job with a 3-1 record as October begins.
Denver won 14 games in the 2025 season and needed every single one of those wins to secure the top seed. Had they gone 13-4, they would have been the third seed. Maybe you don't put a ton of weight into these percentages, especially since we're not even a quarter through the season, but these ones from the table above are based on what actually has happened in this league, so it's worth paying attention to.
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