The Denver Broncos have gotten out of September with a winning record for the first time in the Sean Payton era. We've talked about this a lot, but Payton-coached teams typically get off to a slow start before turning it on as midseason approaches.
This has been the case for much of his head coaching career, and with his being a head coach for nearly two decades, it's not likely to change. The Broncos will play eight games in October and November, with four in each month.
While we know that Payton's teams ramp it up in October, just how much does the team win? We did the math, and it's honestly a bit jaw-dropping.
Denver Broncos own a 10-3 record in October in the Sean Payton era
Denver's 10-3 October record is good for a .769 winning percentage. Here is the yearly record breakdown of the Broncos record since Payton took over back in 2023:
2023: 3-2
2024: 3-1
2025: 4-0
And, here are the October games that Denver has this year:
Week 4 @ San Francisco 49ers
Week 5 @ Los Angeles Chargers
Week 6 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 7 @ Arizona Cardinals
The Broncos would be on pace to win three of these four games, and Payton's .769 October winning percentage with the team is good for an 13-4 season averaged over a full year. The next three games represent the last three games of the six-game gauntlet that the league gifted to Denver before the season.
They also play away games in three of four contests. In looking at this slate, the most obvious thing that stands out would b the Chargers in Week 5 - being able to earn a division win early in the season, especially after losing in Week 1 to Kansas City, would be huge.
If the Broncos hope to repeat as AFC West champions, they'd probably have to go 4-2 in the division. That should be a win, and if the Broncos were to lose one of these games, and it simply had to happen, losing against San Francisco or Seattle really wouldn't be the end of the world.
Denver was undefeated in October last year, and with what we've seen from the team the past two weeks, there isn't any reason to believe why that can't happen again. The 2026 Broncos honestly feel a lot like the 2025 Broncos at this point.
The slow starts and late-game heroics on both sides of the ball nearly got the team to the Super Bowl, and with Payton's rich winning history in October, the Broncos true Super Bowl quest does in Week 4.
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