The Denver Broncos won 10 games in the 2024 NFL Season and made the postseason, but that does not seem to matter much for 2025 projections. A ton of people thought the Broncos would be among the worst teams in the NFL, as various predictions had this team winning three or four games and competing for the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Fortunately, those people could not have been more wrong, as Denver established itself as a top team in the AFC and fielded one of the league's best defenses. Well, the AFC also wasn't quite as good in 2024, so Denver was able to sneak it.
ESPN released their Football Power Index for 2025, and their playoff odds for the Denver Broncos are quite low, for some reason
ESPN gives Denver a 49% chance to make the playoffs...
Here is their AFC playoff table from their FPI predictions:
AFC Team | Playoff Chance |
|---|---|
Bills | 81% |
Ravens | 79% |
Chiefs | 77% |
Bengals | 60% |
Chargers | 57% |
Texans | 54% |
Broncos | 49% |
Steelers | 38% |
Dolphins | 38% |
According to ESPN, the Broncos only have the seventh-best playoff odds on the AFC at just 49%, but I guess when you consider the division Denver is in, this could make sense. The biggest oddity here for me is them giving the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that has not made the playoffs since 2022, a 60% chance to make the playoffs in 2025, 11 percentage points more than the Broncos, who earned that seventh and final seed over Cincy last season.
And I guess the additions that Denver made, especially on the defensive side of the ball, don't matter all that much to ESPN...
It does feel like Denver has a better than 50% chance to make the postseason - they have an average strength of schedule, nine home games, and really only seven away games, as they are playing the Jets in London. Perhaps the Broncos need to carve out another strong season for people to begin believing...