As we are now under the one-week mark until the 2021 NFL Draft begins, expect the whirlwinds to pick up adamantly. For the Denver Broncos, expect many to be surrounding the possibility of trading up or down.
There have already been multiple reports surrounding the Denver Broncos and their desire to select one of the top quarterbacks in this year’s class. Are all of these reports true, somewhat true, or complete smokescreens?
That is the unknown and will proceed to be that way until April 29th. First-year General Manager George Paton has been running quite the tight ship in Dove Valley.
If these “reports” are true, and the Denver Broncos are going to be aggressive, the first thing that must happen is Paton has to find a willing trade partner. Out of the teams that are selecting above the Broncos, who would be possibly willing to trade down?
- Atlanta Falcons- 4th overall pick
- Cincinnati Bengals-5th overall pick
- Miami Dolphins- 6th overall pick
- Detroit Lions- 7th overall pick
- Carolina Panthers- 8th overall pick
As I preview the 2021 NFL Draft, I believe the Atlanta Falcons will be in on tight end Kyle Pitts. While they could certainly move back, the right quarterback would have to fall to the fourth overall pick to influence this decision on the Broncos’ brass.
Moving up to the fourth overall selection would bring the utmost sacrifice, but if Paton believes in a certain quarterback, make the deal.
With the Joe Burrow-influenced Cincinnati Bengals, I do not see the Bengals moving off of their pick. They could use a playmaker wide receiver or tackle to help rising star, Joe Burrow. Ja’Marr Chase would be my guess here, and I think they’d address tackle on day two. There just simply isn’t another player with the capabilities of Chase, while there are serviceable tackles on day two.
The Miami Dolphins, selecting at the 6th overall selection is where trades may start to pick up steam. Up to this point, there have already moved twice in the first round, and are reportedly open to moving back again.
With these trades, the Dolphins have done a phenomenal job of manipulating the draft. They are maximizing the number of picks they could possibly acquire while staying in the range of drafting a player they love. Current second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would love to reunite with a former teammate of his, say wide receiver, Jaylen Waddle.
Waddle or Devonta Smith will almost certainly be available at pick number 9, which could make them an ideal candidate to move back.
First-year Head Coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions looks like he wants to draft a certain player who is going to want to bite some knee caps off. That being said, reports are out there in regards to the Lions being willing to move back. This would be a great spot to move up, as It would require minimal capital to move, compared to the fourth spot.
Moving up two spots may cost the Broncos a couple of mid-round picks but no premier picks should be involved. This Lions team isn’t going to be competitive for a while, it would be wise for them to bring some talent and youth in an attempt of rebuilding this roster.
With the 8th overall, I could see the Matt Rhule-coached Carolina Panthers trading back. About a month ago, they traded draft capital away for a hopeful franchise quarterback, Sam Darnold.
In efforts to recoup some of that capital, they may be willing to move back a slot to pick up an extra early day three selection. This draft spot is tricky, as if the Broncos were trying to be patient in efforts to obtain a quarterback, other teams will be aware and push a larger deal for the 8th overall pick.
Getting in a bidding war, to move up one selection never looks good, especially when looking at the Mitchell Trubisky deal.
Making the Deal
In order for the Denver Broncos to move up to draft their guy, the draft board would have to fall perfectly. Quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones are probably going to go 1,2,3. That leaves two quarterbacks on the board, Justin Fields and Trey Lance.
As it stands today, it seems Trey Lance is the one that the Denver Broncos would target. It’s my best guess that the Atlanta Falcons select Kyle Pitts, and the Cincinnati Bengals select a wide receiver, Ja’Marr Chase.
This is where the Broncos, if they want to, should make their move.
In Paton’s pre-draft press conference on Thursday afternoon, he stated that he recently chatted with Miami Dolphins GM Chris Grier. He separately noted that he has talked with a team about trading back. It is no secret that the Dolphins want to select an Alabama receiver, I am leaning towards Jaylen Waddle.
With the Dolphins being the ones who made the call, this may give the Broncos some leverage. As the Dolphins could move down to nine, and still select their guy. Moving down any further would jeopardize the Dolphins’ chances at selecting Waddle or Smith.
The sixth overall spot is the sweet spot. Paton knows the Dolphins want to trade back, so this could be the way Paton moves up with giving up minimum capital.
What would this cost the Denver Broncos?
In my best guess, I would say this could cost the Broncos just a 3rd round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. According to the Draft Tekk trade value chart, the Broncos first-round pick and the third-round pick would be worth 1,585 points. The 6th overall pick is worth 1,600 points.
This would leave the Denver Broncos with the following selections in the 2021 NFL Draft:
- 6th overall pick
- 40th overall pick
- 114th overall pick
- 152nd overall pick
- 191st overall pick
- 237th overall pick
- 239th overall pick
- 253rd overall pick
While this would be the draft picks the Broncos would have after the Dolphins trade, Paton could be poised to make a few more moves. As he said in his presser, he would prefer to have more darts to throw at the bullseye, as it gives you more chances of hitting.
With the 6th overall pick, the Denver Broncos select quarterback, Trey Lance, North Dakota State.
Justin Fields could certainly be an option here, but I would guess the Broncos select the unrefined and unfinished project in Trey Lance. His potential is incredible, while his chance at being a bust is also incredible.
Only giving up a third-round pick to maneuver up and select Lance is worth the risk here. If Lance could reach anything near his potential the Broncos would walk away with a steal.
Day 2 draft picks
As the Denver Broncos’ 40th overall selection is approaching, the Washington Football Team calls Paton.
In return for the WFT to move up to the 40th overall pick to select quarterback Davis Mills, the Denver Broncos receive their 52nd overall pick and 82nd overall selections.
With the 52nd overall pick, the Denver Broncos select linebacker, Jabril Cox, LSU.
Many may not realize, but Cox and Lance were actually collegiate teammates at North Dakota State in 2019. Does that make the Denver Broncos the Denver Bison?
Kidding of course, but the Denver Broncos walk away with two stars from the 2019 North Dakota State team that actually won the FCS Championship. What is it important to remember here is that Paton has now recouped a third-round pick.
Paton was able to select Lance and a premiere inside linebacker just by the virtue of moving down 11 slots in the third round.
With the 82nd overall pick, the Denver Broncos select safety, Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State.
Kareem Jackson is more than likely playing his final season with the Broncos. Selecting Nasirildeen provides the Broncos with safety depth in 2021, and a future starter in 2022.
Day 3 picks
With the 114th overall selection, the Denver Broncos select cornerback, Trill Williams, Syracuse.
In a recent interview, Paton stated that the Broncos are no longer pressed to draft a cornerback with the recent additions via free agency. That being said, cornerback is a position that can never be undervalued nor underrepresented. In a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, a strong secondary is a must.
Williams provides depth in 2021 and can be in a prime position to push for quality playing time in 2022. Free-agent addition Kyle Fuller is on a one-year deal as well as Bryce Callahan. Having Trill in the bullpen for 2022 would be a smart move for Paton.
With the 152nd overall pick, the Denver Broncos select edge, Johnathan Cooper, Ohio State.
Much like the Williams and Nasirildeen, Cooper has a year to play sparingly. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb are still in Broncos’ uniforms, and Malik Reed should be the sub. Cooper can take the year to learn from future Hall of Famer, Von Miller.
With the 191st overall pick, the Denver Broncos select tackle, Alaric Jackson, Iowa.
Last year’s expected swing tackle Elijah Wilkinson is now a Chicago Bear. Jackson would not expect to come in and start. Ja’Wuan James is an uncomfortable name in Broncos Country, and Jackson could provide depth to settle some of the uneasiness. Current offensive line coach Mike Munchak is a guru at bringing guys to their utmost potential, Jackson could be his next project.
During the seventh round of the 2021 NFL Draft the Denver Broncos select:
- 237th overall– Runningback Chris Evans, Michigan
- 239th overall– Linebacker Tuf Borland, Ohio State
- 253rd overall– Safety Tre Norwood, Oklahoma
Mock Draft Recap
In this particular trade-up scenario, the Denver Broncos were able to land not only the possible quarterback of the future but starters on the defensive side of the ball also.
After all said and done, this draft class haul would ultimately be:
- Trey Lance
- Jabril Cox
- Hamsah Nasirildeen
- Trill Williams
- Johnathan Cooper
- Alaric Jackson
- Chris Evans
- Tuf Borland
- Tre Norwood
Paton said he likes dart throws. He has nine.
Paton said he wanted to add competition to the quarterback room. Trey Lance is now in competition with Drew Lock.
Denver Broncos get multiple first-round picks in 2021 7-round mock draft
The Denver Broncos have been heavily rumored to be interested in QBs, but what if they trade down in the 2021 NFL Draft...and trade back up again?
Checkmate.