The Denver Broncos have just over one week to finalize their plans for the 2021 NFL Draft. Will those plans include a quarterback with the 9th overall pick? Right now, there seems to be a decent chance of that.
New general manager George Paton has been nothing if not thorough in his pre-draft process, bringing all hands on deck to help make the most educated decisions in a very strange year for the NFL Draft evaluation process. Although things are returning to some semblance of normalcy, the after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are impacting teams in a pretty substantial way.
More than probably any year previously, at least in recent memory, teams have to rely on evaluations with limited in-person interaction. In some cases, almost no in-person interaction.
Because of these rare circumstances, one player, in particular, has been a polarizing prospect to evaluate, at least from the armchair general manager’s position. That player is North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance.
A year ago at this time, Lance became somewhat of the new version of what Josh Allen once was at Wyoming. A year before the 2018 NFL Draft, people started talking about Josh Allen like this prodigy who came seemingly out of nowhere. Athletes like Allen don’t grow on trees, so to see a guy at Wyoming who was built like a defensive end, chucking the ball around the yard like a flame-throwing baseball pitcher, and able to use his legs to beat the defense as well playing at Wyoming?
No offense to the Cowboys’ program, it was just a shocker.
Similarly, Trey Lance’s ascent at North Dakota State came out of nowhere. Why was a 6-foot-4, 225-pound quarterback who could whip the ball around the yard playing at North Dakota State instead of starting for a perennial national title contender in the FBS?
Lance threw for over 2,800 yards and rushed for 1,100 yards in his lone season as a starter at North Dakota State with a combined 42 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Needless to say, after his 2019 season, he had the attention of the NFL world and although he and Josh Allen are not exactly the same, you can see why comparisons were made.
Then, the pandemic forced the FCS to postpone their season, and one 16-game season (plus one “showcase” game) was all we got to evaluate Trey Lance on the field.
Because of the value, supply, and demand of the quarterback position, Lance will still be a high first-round draft pick despite the smaller sample size which doesn’t include a single game against FBS competition.
But would he be a fit with the Denver Broncos?
I recently put together a post where I labeled Lance as a player the Denver Broncos should avoid drafting. There are plenty of risks involved here, and you could poke holes in his fit with the other personnel on this team as the Denver Broncos appear to be built to air it out while Lance excels with his legs, but I promised in that post I was also going to make the case for Lance if I was going to give reasons why Paton should avoid drafting him.
Even considering the risk, let’s look at a few reasons why the Denver Broncos should consider making Lance their top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
A possible discount at the QB position
Have you ever come across a pair of Yeezys on sale? Have you ever put your name and credit card information in a raffle just to get the latest pair of Jordan shoes at full price instead of paying above retail?
If you’re not in the sneaker game, the point and analogy I’m trying to make is this — most people fight just to pay retail price for the latest and greatest sneakers. Even more people end up paying above the retail price because only a limited number of shoes are released by their respective companies.
Finding them on sale? That’s not likely to happen anytime soon if ever.
It’s even more difficult to find rare athletes at the quarterback position that just fall into your lap with your first-round pick.
Even in the 2017 NFL Draft, where Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson both fell past the top-nine picks, the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans had to invest multiple first-round picks (and then some) to acquire their quarterbacks of the future.
To circle it all back, paying just a first-round pick — the 9th overall pick, at that — for a quarterback with Lance’s level of talent is borderline unheard of. It would be like finding a pair of Yeezys in your size 50 percent off.
Again, that doesn’t happen, in case that wasn’t clear. And in the event that it did happen? You’d jump at that chance.
Now, are Yeezys or the latest Jordan’s for everyone? No. And there are always future pairs of Yeezys or Jordan’s that you can buy at full price or above retail.
So it is with quarterbacks. There will be other quarterbacks that come available down the line, and there will be opportunities to pay full price or above full price to get them.
With that being said, should you pass on the chance to get a guy at less than full price if you have the chance? As rare (bordering on never) as that happens, you have to wonder how George Paton and the rest of the decision-makers in Denver feel about the chance to get a guy like this should he fall to the 9th pick.
Impact on Drew Lock
There is some good news in case you happen to hope or believe Drew Lock is able to become a good NFL starting quarterback — drafting Trey Lance doesn’t have to mean Lock’s demise.
That’s right.
Although my initial thought to the Denver Broncos drafting a quarterback would be that it would mean Lock getting traded, the more I think about it, the less sense that makes.
The Denver Broncos do not have to get rid of Lock at all. He was their starter last year and he showed upside and promise. He showed flashes of brilliance, even, amidst his inconsistencies and failing forward.
Lance has been pitched as the kind of player that might require some time to learn on the practice field before he gets real regular season action. Lock could keep his starting job in 2021 for the Denver Broncos while Lance learned in practice and in the film room.
Would it be awkward? Possibly, but these guys are professionals, and they kind of just have to deal with it.
The Broncos have Lock under contract at a ridiculously low price for the next two years. Why get rid of him if he’s worked in the offense already and has a chance to increase his value over the course of the next year?
George Paton shouldn’t “sell low” on Drew Lock and I don’t think he would. Even if the Broncos were to bring in Justin Fields and not Trey Lance, I think Lock would be able to stick around because he’s young, cheap, has shown that he can make plays, and there’s no need to punt a second-round pick out the door at the most valuable position on the team when your depth behind him is already highly questionable.
The idea that Lance could come in and push Lock is something I grow fonder of by the day.
In a year, either Lock will have played well enough that you could trade Lance to the highest bidder or he will have played poorly enough that you could comfortably move on with a plan in place already.
There are other benefits to taking Trey Lance in terms of the cost besides just not paying multiple first-round picks in the NFL Draft.
Drafting a quarterback right now would re-set the Denver Broncos’ budget at the position for the next four or five years.
Lock, as mentioned on the previous page, is under contract for another two years with his rookie deal. Lance would be coming in on a rookie deal that would be pennies on the dollar compared to what some of the other top quarterbacks in the league are making right now.
Financially, that’s a massive advantage for general manager George Paton. He can work on re-signing many of the key players that have proven themselves from other recent draft classes (Courtland Sutton, Bradley Chubb, Dalton Risner, Noah Fant, and others) while paying two quarterbacks on rookie contracts.
That would allow the Denver Broncos to be aggressive not only at re-signing their own guys but making upgrades in free agency as well.
The benefits to having a quarterback on a rookie deal in today’s NFL are well-documented at this point. It’s one of the reasons everyone had been so excited about Drew Lock possibly ascending quickly. Unfortunately, entering his third NFL season, we don’t exactly know how he’s going to turn out.
George Paton signed a six-year contract to be the Denver Broncos’ general manager. Realistically, he’s probably got about three or four years to really right the ship.
Fair or not, that’s the reality of the NFL today. Hopefully, the Denver Broncos will afford Paton as much time as possible to get things turned around, but let’s say Paton passes on the chance to take a guy like Lance with the 9th overall pick despite having a pretty well-rounded roster going into the 2021 NFL Draft as it is.
If that happens and he passes on Lance (and other top QBs if they are available), rolls with Drew Lock and a veteran hedge like Teddy Bridgewater, he would be subjecting himself to the possibility of being in the NFL Draft quarterback market in 2022.
With that being said, the Denver Broncos likely don’t plan on picking in the top 10 of the 2022 NFL Draft, so that thinking would put the team in a position to possibly have to allocate 2023 assets into the 2022 NFL Draft, which may not be wise either because the 2023 NFL Draft may have some superstars at the QB position.
It’s not out of the realm of reason to say that the most prudent track for George Paton to take is to draft a quarterback high this year. That would afford him one year to still evaluate Drew Lock’s potential at this level with a young, cost-controlled, extremely talented hedge as insurance (which remember, they would be paying for at lower than market value for).
Drafting Lance keeps you out of the 2022 NFL Draft quarterback market but would allow you to keep options open for the 2023 NFL Draft if need be.
The roster the Denver Broncos have currently assembled is very favorable for the quarterback. They have a plethora of skill players, a very talented defense, and a head coach in Vic Fangio who is going to keep them in every game with his defensive scheming.
That means that Drew Lock, in theory, should find a way to succeed if his talent meets the opportunity he’s been presented with. It also means that in a year, the roster should be even stronger for a rookie quarterback to take over if the other players continue to progress and the team makes wise investments in free agency.
This is not all to say it’s 2021 or bust at the quarterback position. There are paths to success by pushing that need into the future. Although some worry the 2022 class at quarterback will be nothing like the 2021 class, you just never know.
With that said, there is a risk both ways in punting that need.
Especially if he doesn’t have to trade up to acquire him, George Paton would be setting himself up for success given the value of this position and how young Trey Lance is (only 20 years old) right now and the upside he would present in the event that Drew Lock does ball out.
Let’s say that happens, by the way. Let’s say Lock makes a huge leap in the 2021 season, entrenches himself as a star, and the Broncos have Trey Lance sitting on the roster behind him.
What if the 2022 NFL Draft class at QB is as underwhelming as some believe it will be? That would make Trey Lance’s value tremendous to other teams that might come calling to the Broncos about acquiring him.
If you put Lance up against the current projected 2022 class, would he be the QB1 of that group? At this point, that’s at least a fair discussion to have.
How about the football aspect of things?
We haven’t even hardly touched on that yet.
Lance, as a player, is fascinating to watch and try to evaluate. North Dakota State ran an offense that accentuated his strengths. In 17 starts for the team, Lance threw the ball an average of 19 times per game while the team ran the ball 45 times per game.
Justin Fields’ offenses at Ohio State averaged 45 runs per game as well (roughly) in his two seasons as the starter, but he averaged closer to 28/29 pass attempts per game.
The 19 throws per game for Trey Lance is a low figure, but it also proved to be a path to success recently for Josh Allen, who required plenty of patience for the Buffalo Bills.
Although Allen is considered a major outlier in terms of his huge leap as a passer (dead least in the league in completion percentage to an MVP candidate overnight), he was able to help the Buffalo Bills get to the postseason with his playmaking ability as both a passer and runner.
Even if you consider the possibility that Lance could be dead last in the league in completion percentage and still help the Broncos to the playoffs, isn’t that ultimately where everyone wants the team to be?
Again, whether it’s Lock or Lance, returning to the playoffs is goal number one. If the Broncos do it with both guys on the roster, who cares who is the one to get it done?
There is nothing more valuable on an NFL roster than a quarterback. The old adage if you have two quarterbacks you have none is not applicable in this instance because it only applies if you have two guys who are proven to be below-average options.
At this point, Trey Lance and Drew Lock should both be considered options with upside at the game’s most valuable position.
Lance has proven he has elite arm talent and he is unquestionably the best running quarterback in this draft. Yes, that includes Justin Fields. Lance is the premier option when it comes to making plays with his legs.
Even as a passer, Lance put throws on tape that are outstanding. Much has been made of the talent discrepancy at North Dakota State compared to other schools, and there’s no denying that NDSU has been an FCS powerhouse. With that being said, Lance could only make lemonade with the ingredients he was provided.
He showed he can put the ball on a rope and be accurate to all levels of the field. He showed he can go through progressions. He showed areas of weakness as well or poor judgment despite having zero interceptions in 2019 (he threw a pick in NDSU’s showcase game in 2020), but Lance’s talent is too tantalizing to be hung up on his mistakes at the age of 19.
If you remain unconvinced that the Denver Broncos should take Trey Lance with their top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, there is nothing wrong with that.
The Denver Broncos themselves could pass on the chance to get him.
With that being said, given the lack of star power elsewhere in this draft class (especially defensively), it could be the perfect time to invest in the quarterback position and take shots on other positions of need later on in the draft.
If there was a Chase Young type of talent the Denver Broncos could get their hands on, you might pass on a guy like Lance for that.
With that being said, what if Lance was your QB2 heading into the 2021 scouting process a year ago at this time? If he was your QB2, he hasn’t been able to really do anything to deter you from that ranking.
Zach Wilson carries a measure of risk with his shoulder injury history. Justin Fields carries his own level of risk given what some scouts and analysts feel is a slow ability to pull the trigger on secondary reads. There’s also a history of Ohio State’s offense not translating well for quarterbacks to the NFL.
Mac Jones is an underwhelming athlete at the position who has a lot of poise and accuracy, but maybe a lower floor than some of the other more talented athletes at the position.
Every quarterback in every draft is going to carry a level of risk, so why not go after a player with huge upside like Lance, especially when there’s not exactly a no-brainer alternative? Because there’s really not.
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You could make arguments for a lot of prospects, but when it comes down to it, guys as talented as Trey Lance and Justin Fields have to be considered by the Denver Broncos with their top pick for all of the reasons laid out in this post.