A potential top 10 selection in the 2021 NFL Draft, Trey Lance has been a trending matter in Denver Broncos Country. Lance brings plenty of intrigue, as an uber-talented, young, and athletic quarterback, but he also carries some concern too.
As I watched the film on the potential top 10 selection, it was a bit tough to form a complete evaluation due to the lack of sample size. His national availability playing at an FCS school also made it a bit more difficult to pull up, in comparison to a Justin Fields, who was on national television every week.
What did the film study of Trey Lance reveal?
Pros
Lance was an FCS starting quarterback for a marginal, yet productive 17 games in his collegiate career. In 2018, he only attempted one pass the entire season, and in 2020, he only had the chance to play in one game, as the Bison postposed the season amongst the COVID outbreak. His only true season as a collegiate quarterback came in 2019, where he made the best of his lone opportunity,
During the course of 2019, the 6-foot-4, 224-pound redshirt freshman threw for 2,786 passing yards along with 28 passing touchdowns and an astonishing zero interceptions. Certainly a 28:0 TD: INT ratio is not sustainable, but what could be the for the perennial top-ten pick?
Before I lay out what I think he will become in this league, I would first like to break down what I saw by watching what film I could find.
First things first, Trey Lance has a cannon and he possesses the ability to make what scouts and general managers label as “every throw.” As I was watching his film, the first thing that came to mind was how quickly the ball just “flicked” out of his right arm. Once you are a professional football player, the windows get tighter and the separation gets smaller. Lance’s arm strength will be beneficial for him as at times, once the ball was released from his fingertips, it would be difficult to find until it was in the receiver’s hands.
Not every quarterback can snap the ball out like that. This trait is important in the National Football League as there are pass rushers at the next level that are just as athletic and quick as Lance, Broncos Country has happened to have one of the best from the past decade.
Someone like Von Miller who has that natural “dip and bend” ability, who can get under an offensive tackle within a second creates issues for quarterbacks who have a slower and lower release. When Lance decided to release the ball, he rips it. This will help prevent pass-rushers like Miller from strip-sacks, as Miller once said that when he is going for a sack, he attacks the football, not the quarterback.
Diving deeper on this, with Lance’s quick release, I also noticed how he possesses the ball when inside the pocket. Whenever he drops back to pass, you notice how he keeps the ball high and grips it firmly with both hands. If a quarterback is loose or lackadaisical in the pocket with the football, the percentage of fumbling increases significantly. There is no stat for that, just knowing the game and being in love with it for the entity of my life, I can back that up.
On the side of each helmet, there is an “earhole”, and it is taught to keep the football at your earhole, and Lance was a repeat offender of this in the film I broke down. That is a good thing and shows that he is not forgetting the little things that can make a good football player, great. In the pocket, Lance proved that he knew how to take care of the football just by the way he would tuck it to his earhole.
Along with all of that, another way a fan can look and see if they’re watching an intelligent football player, and a student of the game is if the ball carrier switches the ball to their outside arm when breaking away as a ball carrier.
The reason for this is, not only does it free up your inside arm to stiff-arm a defender, but it also keeps the ball further away from the defender as well as using the sideline as your friend in a worst-case scenario, a fumble occurs.
As a runner, this is something that Lance could work on. While he was not the absolute worst in this aspect, I believe it is something he could improve on if he continues to use his legs as a weapon. Lance is not a running back, he is a quarterback. Therefore, this isn’t something I would fault him on necessarily, but if you pay close attention to an elite running back next time you watch them break away, you can see the subtle switch I’m speaking of.
Referring back to his full-season as a starter, he amassed 1,100 yards on the ground while crossing the pylon 14 times. Instilling this little detail in his repertoire could make him an even better runner. As an athlete, Lance has a phenomenal build and is tremendously gifted, this improvement in his rushing attack would only emphasize strength and athletic style of play.
Switching back over to his ability to manipulate the field, and control the play, I’d like to look at a certain play in 2019 against South Dakota. He rolled out to his right, and his receiver was running a post route to clear out the safety, Lance controlled the safety with his eyes long enough to find the tight end leaking out behind the play, streaking the seam on a wheel route. Lance would then drop the ball in the tight end’s hands for an eventual touchdown.
I would imagine that this play alone has to have coaches like San Fransisco 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan and Denver Broncos Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur drooling (this particular play begins at the 1:50 mark in this video).
Current Broncos tight end Noah Fant would be unstoppable in this sort of play design with this type of execution. Drew Lock and Fant pulled off a similar play like this against the Kansas City Chiefs during the snow game in 2019, albeit the current OC at the time was Rich Scangarello, who coincidentally enough is the 49ers quarterback coach again.
For a quarterback who has played in a mere 17 games, he has shown he possesses the ability to control the play, and dictate the defense into doing what he wants.
With the rise of the spread offense, Lance has shown that he is able to operate under center just as well as he can from the gun. Lance is part of the minority in that he is still very willing and able to play fake, turn his back to the defense, pop up, climb the pocket and find the open target. In a scheme run by Pat Shurmur, it is my personal opinion that Lance would thrive. While we did not see the Broncos go as heavy on play-action as many had expected last year, I fully expect Shurmur to get back to his bread and butter in 2021.
Another important play in the video above is at the 2:25 mark. This play shows both a positive and a negative trait of Lance. In the gun, he takes the snap, goes through his progressions, and sees nothing he likes.
The positive takeaway is this is an example of how well he climbs the pocket. He isn’t afraid to step up into the teeth of the defense and make a tough throw or take off and go. What I did not like in this example, is how you see he is still carrying the ball on his inside arm. This play is a great example of what I touched on earlier, and if Lance switched the ball to his outside arm there, he easily could have turned what was a 20 yard gain into a potential 90-yard touchdown run as he could have severed the connection between him and the defender.
There is a lot to love about Trey Lance and his potential, but the word “potential” is also unknown. That should definitely carry some cause for concern, but what are his biggest flaws, and are they enough to steer the Denver Broncos away from selecting him in the top 10?
Cons
Obviously, the biggest concern for the 17 game starter is just that, he has only started 17 games, and they were in the FCS. Lance played against lesser talent, and players that will more than likely not be pursuing professional careers in the National Football League. It is also important to mention that North Dakota State is also considered a powerhouse in the FCS, meaning that the players that surrounded him typically would be the far superior athletes.
Along with his slate of games, there were times when it seemed Lance would be a little late on some of his throws. This would lead to throws behind placed behind his receivers, which would lead to interceptions in the NFL. Diagnosing what the reasoning was behind this is important, was it a matter of not being able to read the defense, or getting in his drop late? This wasn’t a constant error, but it did occur enough that it needed to be discussed.
From what I took from it, sometimes he would pre-diagnose a play before the snap and ultimately decide where he would want to go with the football. This could be a problem at the professional level, as the speed of the players is significantly higher, and if you are late in the NFL, you will pay.
Defenses in the NFL are also very complex, teams may show cover two pre-snap, with corners up in the receiver’s face ready to press, but they may bail at the snap and drop to cover three. Anticipating where you want to go with the ball is one thing, but not falling off of that option when it isn’t available is how you end up late and behind across the middle, which results in interceptions in the NFL.
Summary
In summation, the throw at the 4:20 mark of this game tape is ultimately why Trey Lance will be, and deservingly so, a top 10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. This is an example of a “bucket throw.” Lance had an amazing deep ball and was very accurate when doing so. Not many quarterbacks can make the throw he made at the 4:20 mark. It was a very difficult catch for a receiver at the FCS level, but one that a professional should make every time.
My biggest concern in front of the Denver Broncos is the San Fransisco 49ers. While many have reported they like Mac Jones, I am just not buying that. Trey Lance in a scheme ran through Kyle Shanahan would be a match made in heaven.
For whatever reason, if Lance is passed on eight times, and I am first-year general manager George Paton, I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Trading up is a different scenario that would have to be determined by the cost analysis of what it would take to move up, that’s if he isn’t selected third overall.
According to the Gazette’s Columnist Woody Paige, the Broncos have called the Atlanta Falcons and expressed interest in trade up to four, and Paige speculated on what that could cost. Broncos Country Tonight’s insider Benjamin Albright did however say these claims were false, not that they wouldn’t happen, they just have not occurred to this day.
Trey Lance could be a franchise-altering quarterback if he reached his potential, which I would say would be in the ballpark of what Josh Allen represents for the Buffalo Bills. In the 2018 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos passed on this type of talent in Allen, in favor of pass-rusher Bradley Chubb, and understandably so. If this opportunity presented itself again, would the Denver Broncos pull the trigger?
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If Trey Lance is on the board at pick number 9, I would put all of my chips in on him being a part of the Mile High City.