The Denver Broncos are 12-3 on the season and control their own destiny for the AFC West title and the top seed in the AFC, which is outstanding. The Broncos were able to lose a game, as they have that cushion going for them even with the Bills, Chargers, and Patriots all winning in Week 16.
Now, approaching Week 17, Denver can clinch both the division and the AFC's top seed this week if things go their way. The easiest scenario that can happen is the Broncos beating the Chiefs on Christmas and the LA Chargers losing to the Houston Texans on Saturday. If that happens, the Broncos will go into their Week 18 home game against the Chargers with the division wrapped up.
Well, the team is clearly enduring a regression on the defensive side of the ball for the second season in a row, which makes many of us think that it is not a coincidence. Could defensive coordinator Vance Joseph be the reason why the Denver Broncos' season again ends early?
The Denver Broncos could endure their second late-season defensive regression in a row
Vance Joseph is an excellent defensive coordinator and is in play for a head coaching job this offseason, but this is now the second season in a row that the defense has taken a step back near the end of the season, and the simplest answer for why this is happening could simply be opposing offenses figuring out the unit as more film is available, and Joseph not being able to adjust.
As you can see, there is a regression across the board:
Broncos defensive rankings:
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) December 22, 2025
EPA per play:
Weeks 1-10: 3
Weeks 11-16: 26
Dropback EPA/play:
Weeks 1-10: 2
Weeks 11-16: 23
Rush EPA/play:
Weeks 1-10: 6
Weeks 11-16: 15
Broncos points per game allowed:
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) December 22, 2025
Before the bye: 17.5
After the bye: 25.8
This happened last year, and the Broncos got blown out in the Wild Card Round against the Buffalo Bills, but virtually no one expected Denver to be there, so you could say that it didn't 'count.' However, this year is a much different story, and if the defense lets up here in Week 17 and Week 18, the Broncos are going to be in trouble.
Denver can still clinch the top overall seed and will control their own destiny for that. The ideal hope here is that the defense is able to get back on track against a third-string quarterback in Week 17 and perhaps take that momentum into Week 18 in what could be a massively important game.
Vance Joseph has to do something - the late-season defensive collapses are the last thing this team needs right now.