The Denver Broncos are preparing to faceoff against the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round, and it's surely not going to be an easy take. Yes, the Bills are down multiple wide receivers and do not defend the run particularly well, but this team is as seasoned as any in the playoffs and also have Josh Allen.
Denver isn't going to be able to shoot themselves in the foot early in the game, only to come back in the fourth quarter. The playoffs are a different animal, so if the Broncos hope to win, it's going to take a full four quarters of solid play. The Broncos don't have to do anything special, though - they need to stop the run on defense and run the ball well on offense.
If that happens, and if Denver takes care of the football and minimizes the mistakes, they'll win and host the AFC Championship Game. I did some digging, though and found some pretty interesting stats that actually paint a great picture for the Denver Broncos when the have to air it out more.
The Denver Broncos are 5-1 when Bo Nix has at least 250 passing yards
Bo Nix hit the 250 passing yard mark in six games this year for the Denver Broncos. In those games, the Broncos went 5-1, with their lone loss coming to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now, yes, that also means the team was 9-2 when Nix doesn't throw for at least 250 yards, but the point totals in these games is the main idea here:
When Nix has at least 250 yards: 27.3 points per game
When Nix has fewer than 250 yards: 21.5 points per game
That's 5.8 points per game of a difference, which obviously rounds up to a touchdown. You may not think this is an efficient way to go about things, but perhaps this is a winning formula for the Divisional Round.
In those six games, the Broncos actually had fewer than 100 rushing yards in three of them. I don't necessarily think that Denver is going to come out immediately and throw the ball all over the place, as the Bills rushing defense is weaker, but it's definitely something they have done well this year.
The obvious ideal scenario is the Broncos having success on the ground and seeing efficiency through the air. At the end of the day, Sean Payton is likely hoping for both the run and pass to work well, but the Broncos have had some notable success when the passing attack has to take center stage.