Sean Payton, for some reason, starts off pretty slow in September, but reversing this in 2025 could be ideal for the Broncos' chances this year.
One of the interesting quirks of Sean Payton's tenure as a head coach in the NFL is that he historically starts off quite slow in September. It's something that has plagued him a bit during his time with the Denver Broncos, as the 2025 opener was the first Week 1 win of his tenure with the team.
Moreover, Payton started out 0-3 in 2023 and 0-2 in 2024, so we could see a huge reversal here. When you look at this coaching history, the veteran leader truly has a chance to turn the 2025 season into something special. Let's talk about this more.
Sean Payton's slow starts in September aren't ideal, but...
Starting back in 2006, his first year as a head coach, his record in September is just 30-28, including the 2025 Week 1 win over the Titans.
This works out to be a winning percentage of just .517
However, things really ramp up in October and November, as his combined record in those months is a whopping 99-44, which works out to be a .692 winning percentage. So, in September, the Broncos will still play the Colts, Chargers, and Bengals. He'll statistically win two of his first four games this year.
However, what if things change? Winning in Week 1 almost feels like an extra win, if that makes any sense. It's realistic to think that the Broncos beat the Colts in Week 2, and all of a sudden, this team is 2-0. Ideally, Denver enters October and November with a strong 3-1 record, having dropped one of their games against the Chargers or Bengals.
Denver plays eight games in October and November, and if his .692 winning percentage holds true in 2025, Denver would win six of their eight games. If we say for a second that the Denver Broncos go 3-1 in September and 6-2 in October and November, this team would enter the last stretch of the season with a 9-3 record.
Denver was 7-5 through 12 games in the 2024 NFL Season. The key here, obviously, is shedding that slow start in September and managing to win three of the first four games. His record in October and November does give the Broncos a very high floor. There was only one example of a Sean Payton-coached team winning fewer than four games across October and November, and it was the 2021 season for the Saints, a year where they had an insane amount of injuries.
At minimum, it honestly feels like Denver would win five of their games in October and November this year, and that could still potentially give them an 8-4 record through 12 games. No matter how you want to slice it up, Sean Payton shedding the slow start in September would do wonders for the Broncos' season in 2025.