Why the Denver Broncos will absolutely win more than 5 games in 2024

The sportsbooks have the over/under for the Denver Broncos win totals at 5.5. Here's why they will blow past that number with ease.
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Broncos 2024 opponents have been finalized and we are going to break down how many wins and losses there will be come season's end. With the league going to the 17-game format, unfortunately, there will only be 8 games at home while 9 will be played on the road. Regardless, in a post-draft world now, I believe there are more wins here than what the sportsbooks might think. 

Let's start with the away opponents. Now, the schedule hasn't been released yet so while we might not know what week is which game, we do still have enough information at this time to predict some possible outcomes. The NFL Draft has come and gone and most of the major off-season moves have commenced. So even though each team's official 53-man rosters haven't been submitted, we have a pretty good idea of who is playing where. So with that said, let's begin.

Getting the obvious out of the way, the Broncos will face their division counterparts at each of their stadiums. Time has told me that betting against Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead doesn't always yield you the best returns. The Chargers and Raiders are another pickle for the Broncos on their own. The Raiders currently still have Denver's number with 8 straight wins and the Chargers just brought in a potential Hall of Fame-level Head Coach in John Harbaugh. That said, I do think one of these is a win. That's the Raiders in Vegas. I believe Denver is the overall better team and will have superior quarterback play. The Chiefs and Chargers will be hard-fought losses.   

Denver will also travel to Baltimore, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, and New Jersey to face the Jets. I think there is a split 50/50 here with wins coming against New Orleans, Seattle, and a surprise win over the Jets that will be sure to make some headlines. The Jets are going to be better this year but their entire season revolves around a 40-year-old quarterback coming off of an Achilles tear. Time will tell how that shakes out.

So let's recap here before we move into the home opponents. The Broncos are sitting at 4-5 through their away games with wins coming from the Raiders, Saints, Seahawks, and Jets. A week ago with the way the team looked, going 4-5 after their away games would have been a much hotter take than it is today.

Now for the home stretch. Once again, I want to reiterate that we do not have a schedule at this time. That said, just like with the away games, let's start with the division. I think this is a home sweep. That's right, not only are the Broncos going to sweep the Raiders this year but I also think they sweep the entire division at home. The Broncos vastly improved the makeup of this team on paper this offseason. They got younger in a lot of areas and made some key acquisitions in Bo Nix and John Franklin-Myers.

The Browns, Steelers, Falcons, Panthers, and Colts will round out the opponents for this year's schedule. The Browns were a great team with Joe Flacco but what will they be with Deshaun Watson at the helm? That's still up in the air and I will side with the home team here. This is a win for Denver. 

The game most will have circled and the league will probably be put in prime-time is this next one. The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming to Mile High being led by their new quarterback, Russell Wilson. I believe Denver and Pittsburgh are closer in terms of full roster makeup than some will want to admit but regardless. It's in Denver. The tensions will be high. Both Sean Payton and Russell Wilson will have something to prove. This one is simple. Denver is going to win this game. Period.

The Falcons, Panthers, and Colts are a little tougher to predict because every single year there are handfuls of games that a certain team should absolutely win and they don't. Denver won't go undefeated at home with a rookie quarterback. Mistakes will happen and it'll be a shock to some. I see two losses here to Atlanta and Indianapolis. Atlanta might have used its #8 selection on a quarterback but whether it's Penix Jr. or Kirk Cousins at the helm, I think this will be a game where Denver comes away whiffing. Indianapolis will be tough regardless of Anthony Richardson's health or Joe Flacco passing the ball.

If the Denver Broncos come out of this year with a 10-7 record that should be able to get them into a wildcard spot for the playoffs. Denver needs this arguably more than any other team in the AFC. They've had eight consecutive seasons of missing the playoffs and there will be quite a bit of noise if Sean Payton is entering year three without at least one trip to the playoffs under his belt during his time in Denver.