What is a reasonable rookie season for Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix?

How much could we expect from Bo Nix in year one?
Denver Broncos OTA Offseason Workouts
Denver Broncos OTA Offseason Workouts / Matthew Stockman/GettyImages

The Denver Broncos seem likely to start Bo Nix in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season. How much could we expect from him in year one? There have been some recent QBs who have lit it up during their rookie season. There are other instances where the production is more modest, and finally, where the QB is just not great.

How much could Broncos fans expect from Bo Nix in year one? I do believe a lot of us are obsessed a bit with stats. I think that's what we naturally want to see. However, stats can be misleading. Russell Wilson in 2023 tossed 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He earned a strong 98 passer rating, so you'd think that the Denver Broncos would have had a nice season offensively.

Well, the offense was poor - the unit was one-dimensional, so the stats that Wilson put on the page were misleading. It's important to consider this with a rookie QB especially. In fact, Bo Nix could throw for 22 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, and the Broncos offense could be much better in 2024 than they were in 2023.

It's all about the context and how the QB looks on tape, not just what the box score says. If Bo Nix is named the starter for Week 1, that's a great start. I mean, hasn't earned the starting job yet, but maybe that's just a formality.

Anyway, ideally, Bo Nix suits up for all 17 regular season games in 2024 for the Broncos. If that is the case, you'd have to figure that the QB could hit the 20-touchdown pass mark, at least. Denver may rely on the ground game more, so Nix might not have a ton of yards. If he threw for 200 yards per game, he'd finish with 3,400.

What completion percentage and interceptions? We do know that Bo Nix completes a high percentage of his passes. Maybe he hits the 65% mark during his rookie season. As for the interceptions, maybe he ends up with 10? Maybe a 2:1 TD:INT ratio is a modest and realistic expectation.

OK, so let's say that Bo Nix did all of this in 2024:

3,400 yards, 65% completion, 20 touchdowns, 10 interceptions.

How does that sound? If Bo Nix did exactly this in 2024, would you be satisfied?