ESPN senior analyst projects a rough rookie season for Bo Nix

ESPN senior analyst Mike Clay published his annual season projection for all 32 teams, which includes individual statistics and win-loss projections. He predicts the Broncos will finish with the third-worst win-loss record and land the third overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. He is also predicting a below-average rookie campaign for Bo Nix despite him impressing in both camp and preseason.

Stats are tough to predict, especially for rookies such as Bo Nix, who have not played a regular-season snap since the regular season has a different intensity and pressure from the preseason. Nix had 205 passing yards and 2 touchdowns in 23 completions throughout the NFL preseason, he only appeared in the first two games against Indianapolis and Green Bay, respectively. The Broncos scored points in every Nix drive except for one where tight end Lucas Krull fumbled the football against the Colts.

In Clay's 2024-25 season projection guide, he has Bo Nix playing in 14 of the 17 games with the following stats:

Clay's 13 interception projection for Nix is tied for second-worst among NFL quarterbacks, tied with his fellow rookie Caleb Williams, and behind Jayden Daniels, who Clay projects a 14 interception season for the number two pick. Compared to the other rookie quarterbacks, Bo is projected to be the fourth in passing yards behind Daniels, Williams, and Maye. He is projected to be the third in passing touchdowns behind Daniels and Williams.

Something interesting from this Guide is that Clay has Nix over former Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson regarding stats, except for interceptions. According to his projection, Wilson will finish with 2,906 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, but will play in 13 games, one less than Bo. Nix will have his NFL debut on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks to prove doubters wrong on these projections.

Perhaps the toughest to come to grips with are the yards and interceptions. Throwing for 3,000 yards in today's NFL is incredibly easy for quarterbacks. In a full 17-game season, throwing for just over 3,000 yards would barely require 177 yards passing per game. To barely throw for 180 yards per game as well as average almost one interception per game does not seem overly likely for Nix, who was outstanding with ball security in his time with the Oregon Ducks.