Don't look now, but the Denver Broncos' playoff chances can skyrocket over the next four games. Can the team actually make a playoff run? Am I being serious? 100%.
The Denver Broncos started 0-2 on the season and very much had an 0-4 record staring them right in the face. But instead of dropping to 0-4, they ripped off two away wins in a row against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New York Jets, which gets them to 2-2 and right back in the early thick of things.
They also happen to have their easiest chunk of games coming up in Weeks 5-8. In Weeks 5 and 6, they host the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers. In Week 7, they face the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football in New Orleans. and in Week 8, they return back home against the Carolina Panthers.
Given how good the defense is and the possibility that the Broncos' offense improves now that they won't be facing elite defenses, is it crazy to suggest that Denver can win three of their next four? What about all four? How about them just winning two of four?
Well, this handy chart from the NFL outlines playoff probability chances by record with the new 17-game season that the NFL rolled out in 2021. Here is the chart and how they calculated these percentages:
"To better understand the playoff implications of each win or loss, we used the nflSeedR package in the R Statistical Software to simulate 10,000 17-game NFL seasons based on historical estimates of team strength. Below, we visualize the probabilities for playoff, division, and top-seed hopefuls across the league.NFL Operations
The first chart shows the percentage of NFL teams that can expect to make the playoffs at each record (credit to FiveThirtyEight for the idea)."
As of now, the Broncos are 2-2 and currently have a 42% chance to make the postseason. But what would their chances be after they've played their next four games, which is the easiest stretch on their schedule?
If they ended up 2-6 after the next four, they'd have a 6% chance
If they ended up 3-5, they'd have an 18% chance.
If they ended up 4-4, they'd have a 41% chance.
If they ended up at 5-3, they'd have a 67% chance.
If they won their next four and got to 6-2, they'd have an 87% chance.
So there you have it, folks. Given how well Denver has played over the last two weeks, I would be shocked if they won less than three of their next four. I don't believe it's crazy to think that the Broncos can get to 5-3 after eight games, which would give them a 67% chance to make the postseason.
Yes, they still have yet to play opponents like the Baltimore Ravens and would still have to play the Chiefs twice, but getting a two-game cushion about halfway through the 2024 NFL Season would be ideal.
It could be more realistic to see Denver split their next two games and get to 4-4, which is still giving them a 41% to make the postseason, which is about where they are now.
Can the Denver Broncos legitimately make the postseason in 2024?