With free agency nearing an end and former Saints and Eagles safety CJ Gardner-Johnson agreeing to terms with the Detroit Lions, the Denver Broncos still have some lingering questions at the safety position of their own. Will veteran Kareem Jackson be re-signed to another 1-year deal or will defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and his staff, who seemingly "love" Caden Sterns, decide to give the former 2021 5th-round pick the opportunity to start alongside his mentor in Justin Simmons? Let's break it down.
Despite having an interest in star free agent CJ Gardner-Johnson, the Broncos seem to have directed their interest to perhaps an in-house player. With Caden Sterns fully recovered from his hip injury that lingered from his college days at Texas, the Broncos now have a decision to make with unrestricted free agent Kareem Jackson.
In 2022, Kareem Jackson posted a career-high 94 tackles along with 2 tackles for loss, 3 pass breakups, and 2 fumble recoveries in all 17 games started. Coverage-wise, he allowed 470 receiving yards (worst in his last 5 seasons), 3 touchdown passes (worst in his last 5 seasons) 100.2 passer rating (2nd worst in last 5 seasons) however, only allowed 57.6% completion on 59 targets (best in last 5 seasons).
Jackson, 34, coming up on his 35th birthday, is getting up there in age but certainly still remains one of the hardest hitting, physical players at his position in the entire NFL. The main concern consists of the drop-off in coverage ability over the last few seasons. Jackson has publicly stated via the Good Morning Football show that he wants to play two more seasons, but with which team is still yet to be figured out.
According to Brandon Krisztal of KOA Colorado, there are "plenty of folks in the building who want Kareem Jackson back" and it would be a "surprise" if he isn't re-signed at some point this off-season. You can make the argument that GM George Paton will wait until around the final wave of free agency to find a common ground on a potential 1-year contract extension with Jackson to re-establish continuity in the secondary with Jackson and Simmons while Caden Sterns shares snaps.
It also isn't entirely impossible that we don't see all three of Justin Simmons, Kareem Jackson and Caden Sterns on the field at the same time, especially with Jackson's ability and versatility to line up in the box, defending the run. However, Vance Joseph's defensive scheme is known for its tendencies of running cover 1 and cover 2 inserting more linebackers in coverage rather than extra defensive backs while the corners are in press-man coverage. To counter that, Joseph has shown the flexibility to make adjustments to his defense to improve the unit as a whole. So as of now, every possibility is on the table for the secondary.
On the flip side, Caden Sterns who said on the Broncos Avenue Podcast that he has a "chip on his shoulder" and felt that he "left a lot of production out on the field" in 2022 before going to the injured reserve, is ready for a massive comeback season. The main concern with Sterns, of course, has been the everlasting injuries throughout his collegiate and pro football career. He has dealt with a variety of injuries including issues with his knee, shoulder, ankle, hip, and even his head dating back to Texas. However, in terms of his abilities and potential on the field, the sky is the limit.
In 5 games in 2022, he was targeted just 17 times allowing 29.4% completion, 84 yards, and a mere 8.1 passer rating. Insane numbers. To say Caden Sterns can't be a top 5 safety in the NFL is a complete understatement, given his incredibly high ceiling. It will ultimately come down to availability for the 23-year-old star.
Nonetheless, Broncos have a very important decision on their hands and potentially a costly one. Does George Paton re-sign the veteran leader in the locker room in Kareem Jackson or does he give the keys to the young and hungry Caden Sterns who is looking to put the league on notice? Experience or youth? One way or another, one of these safeties will be receiving more playing time than the other in 2023.