The race for the AFC playoffs over the last month is going to be intense. The Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs are your current division leaders but it's the positioning for the three Wild Card spots that is going to be most interesting.
The Denver Broncos figure prominently in that race, though they could still come away with the AFC West crown this season.
As of this writing, there are six teams in AFC that sit at 7-6, with the Broncos being one of those. The Cleveland Browns, currently the top Wild Card team, are 8-5. But a lot can change over the next four weeks.
ESPN has a great feature known as the NFL playoff machine. There, you can predict the remainder of the NFL season and see how the playoffs are set. For the purpose of this discussion, that is exactly what I did.
The Broncos face a good Detroit Lions team this Sunday in what many could consider a must-win game. I tend to disagree. In fact, under these predictions, the Broncos make the playoffs even with a loss this weekend.
Division Winners
Over the final month, nothing changes with the current division leaders.
The Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North by three games and head into the playoffs with a 13-4 record and the AFC's No. 1 overall seed. With Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level, they will be a tough out for anyone.
The Kansas City Chiefs end up winning the West, much to the chagrin of Broncos fans. But with games against the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals and Chargers left on their schedule, I don't have them losing another game and they head into the playoffs on a hot streak after their tough loss to Buffalo.
The Miami Dolphins win the AFC East and even though they suffered a blowout loss earlier this season to Buffalo, they avenge that loss and win the division by three games. Though they have been a little up-and-down at times this season, having at least one home game in the playoffs is huge for this team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars take the AFC South despite a huge push from a surprisingly good Colts team down the stretch. The coaching of Doug Pederson puts them over the top and though they finish with an identical 11-6 record with the Colts, they win the division based on tiebreakers.
Who's In?
These are the teams that made it to the playoffs as Wild Cards based on the predictions. Here is each of their final four games.
5. Indianapolis Colts (11-6)
vs. Pittsburgh- Win
at Atlanta- Win
vs. Las Vegas- Win
vs. Houston- Win
The Colts are one of the surprise teams in the league this year and I just don't see them losing any of those games, although they could. The Steelers have quarterback issues and the Falcons and Raiders are both average to below average teams.
6. Denver Broncos (10-7)
at Detroit- Loss
vs. New England- Win
vs. L.A. Chargers- Win
at Las Vegas- Win
Even with a loss to the Lions, not only do the Broncos make the playoffs, they get in as the No. 6 seed. This spot would have gone to the Houston Texans, but the loss of C.J. Stroud, even if it's just for this coming week, could doom their playoff hopes.
The Broncos lick their wounds after a loss to the Lions and close the season with three big wins.
7. Cleveland Browns (10-7)
vs. Chicago- Win
at Houston- Loss
vs. N.Y. Jets- Win
at Cincinnati- Loss
The Browns fall to No. 7 due to their earlier loss this season to the Broncos. They close the season with two wins and two losses including a back-and-forth battle against the Bengals in the season finale.
But they still have enough to get into the playoffs with Joe Flacco and a solid defense.
In this scenario, the Broncos would face the Dolphins in the first round. Would that matchup be welcomed or would fans be petrified after what happened the last time?
Who's Out?
These teams all missed out on the playoffs based on how the final month of the season went for them.
Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
vs. Minnesota- Win
at Pittsburgh- Win
at Kansas City- Loss
vs. Cleveland- Win
This is highly unfortunate for the Bengals, who win three of their final four games to finish the year 10-7 and even defeat Cleveland in the season finale but still miss the playoffs while the Browns get in. This is what happens when you are on the wrong side of tiebreakers.
Buffalo Bills (9-8)
vs. Dallas- Loss
at L.A. Chargers- Win
vs. New England- Win
at Miami- Loss
Like the Bengals, the Bills are on the bad side of some tiebreakers. In fact, even if they were to beat Miami in the season finale, if all of these other predictions went this way, they still would not be a playoff team. Their Week 15 game against the Cowboys is going to be huge as that could turn their entire season around.
Houston Texans (9-8)
at Tennessee- Loss
vs. Cleveland- Win
vs. Tennessee- Win
at Indianapolis- Loss
The Texans looked like a sure-fire playoff team not long ago, but C.J. Stroud could very easily miss the team's game this Sunday as he is in the league's concussion protocol. If he does not play, it will be difficult to win with Davis Mills on the road.
If the Texans lose to the Titans this Sunday, they will have a good-sized hole to dig out of where it all comes down to the final game against the Colts, a game they lose under these predictions.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10)
at Indianapolis- Loss
vs. Cincinnati- Loss
at Seattle- Loss
at Baltimore- Loss
This seems like the one team that you can easily count out right now. The Steelers are going in the wrong direction and they can't get out of their own way on offense. In addition, this is a difficult final 4-game schedule.
It would be quite interesting to see what the future would hold for Mike Tomlin if the Steelers finished in this fashion.
But most of all, this was done to show that even with one more loss and a 10-win season, the Broncos can still easily qualify for the playoffs. They are on the right side of many of the tiebreakers that are sure to end up playing a part, so this prediction could come to fruition.