On Sunday, we saw the Denver Broncos get a huge win over the Los Angeles Chargers and not long after that game went final, the Kansas City Chiefs suffered a loss to the Buffalo Bills.
The Broncos were the only team in the AFC West to win in Week 14 and with one month left in the regular season, they are now just one game behind the Chiefs in the division.
Could the Broncos, left for dead after a 50-point drubbing in Miami, actually pull this off? The Broncos are well within string distance in the Wild Card race but if they could win the division, and host a playoff game, it would be one of the more unlikely turnarounds in the history of the league.
Here, we are going to take a look at how possible it is for the Broncos to win the division for the first time since 2015.
AFC West Standings
Team | Win | Loss | Home Record | Road Record | Division Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City | 8 | 5 | 4-3 | 4-2 | 3-1 |
Denver | 7 | 6 | 4-3 | 3-3 | 2-2 |
Los Angeles | 5 | 8 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 1-2 |
Las Vegas | 5 | 8 | 4-3 | 1-5 | 1-2 |
Remaining Schedule
This certainly seems like a two-horse race as both the Chargers and Lions have played their way out of things at this point. Those two teams are not good but they can still play spoiler to either the Broncos or the Chiefs.
The Broncos and Chiefs have split the season series this season but where the Chiefs will own the tiebreaker over Denver, at least currently, is with a better win-loss record within the division. Here are the remaining schedules for each team.
Denver Broncos | Opponent | Opponent Current Record |
|---|---|---|
Week 15 | at Detroit Lions | 9-4 |
Week 16 | vs. New England Patriots | 3-10 |
Week 17 | vs. Los Angeles Chargers | 5-8 |
Week 18 | at Las Vegas Raiders | 5-8 |
Kansas City Chiefs | Opponent | Opponent Current Record |
|---|---|---|
Week 15 | at New England Patriots | 3-10 |
Week 16 | vs. Las Vegas Raiders | 5-8 |
Week 17 | vs. Cincinnati | 7-6 |
Week 18 | at Los Angeles Chargers | 5-8 |
With the Broncos trailing the Chiefs by one game in the standings and with having one more loss than they do within the division, the margin for error for the Broncos is going to be quite low, despite the fact that it seems these two teams are going in opposite directions.
It's interesting to note that both teams play similar opponents and you would have to imagine that both teams will beat the Patriots and likely get wins over both the Chargers and Raiders.
That makes the key games this week for the Broncos against the Lions on the road and in Week 17 for the Chiefs at home against the Bengals. Even if the Broncos beat the Lions and the Chiefs lost to the Bengals, Kansas City would still win the division based on having the better divisional record.
The Broncos would need the Chiefs to suffer an upset against either the Raiders or Chargers to have a chance to win the division while likely winning all of the rest of their games. Though it doesn't appear this way, because the Chiefs have the better divisional record, it's more like having a two-game lead over the Broncos rather than a one-game lead.
Current State of the Chiefs
Perhaps the key aspect of how we see this race in the final month of the season is what we saw at the end of the Chiefs-Bills game on Sunday. The Chiefs were able to complete an incredible, likely game-winning play, only to have it wiped out by an offensive offsides penalty.
This caused Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to have a meltdown in a scene that was unlike anything we have seen from him before. Though most are raking Mahomes over the coals for this, it is going to be a defining moment in this season for the Chiefs.
It will either be something that lights a collective fire within the team, something it can rally around and use as a motivator or it is going to be an incident that completely sinks the club for this season and causes any aspirations for the Super Bowl to go up in smoke.
It is clear that this Chiefs team is not the one we have become used to. That is mostly to do with the fact that Mahomes can't seem to get a single bit of good play out of the wide receiver position.
For the Chiefs to succeed this season, they are going to have to do it in ways we haven't seen before. They are more susceptible to defeat than ever before in the Mahomes era and this is something any team can take advantage of right now, even a team like the Raiders.
Verdict
Can the Broncos win the division? Of course, it's possible. The Chiefs are struggling, the Broncos are surging. Still, it's a tough path when you consider everything mentioned throughout this article.
The Broncos need to take care of their own business, which will start with a difficult road game against a solid Lions squad. But in my opinion, the division race comes down to how the Chiefs respond to what happened following the loss to Buffalo.
It is a great thing that we are even able to have this conversation at this stage of the season. The Broncos not only finally ended the long losing streak to Kansas City earlier this season, but being talked about as a potential division winner in December is better than anyone could have asked for.
It's an ironclad sign that this team is headed in the right direction... at long last.