Broncos roster is proof the NFL is bad at evaluating quarterbacks

The NFL seemingly has a problem evaluating the quarterback position. The Denver Broncos have been largely scoffed at for using a 1st-round pick on Bo Nix in the 2024 NFL Draft, but the criticism surrounding the Nix pick has been unfounded and clearly ignores recent history.

Let's take a quick trip down memory lane, shall we? Let's look at all of the first-round quarterbacks since Super Bowl 50.

2016: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch
2017: Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes
2018: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson
2019: Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins
2020: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love
2021: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones
2022: Kenny Pickett
2023: Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson
2024: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix

Some of the biggest stars in today's game are on that list, but so are a lot of major whiffs by NFL organizations. Including the Denver Broncos back in 2016. Taking a first-round quarterback is not a sure-fire ticket to success in today's NFL, and Broncos fans know that all too well. The idea, however, that Bo Nix wasn't worth a first-round pick because he's "too old" or underwhelming physically (which is hilarious) is ridiculous.

It's impossible to take some of the opinions that get thrown out there all that seriously because of the fact that the same analysts that fall in love with the likes of Zach Wilson are the same people who will tell you that Nix wasn't worth a first-round selection. Nix is too "boring" for these people, but why?

This video from ESPN's Booger McFarland along with Adam Schefter and Louis Riddick really does an outstanding job of painting the picture of exactly what is the problem in today's NFL with evaluating the quarterback position. It's the reason why Brock Purdy fell all the way to the 7th round and it's the reason why Dak Prescott fell all the way to the 3rd round. Traits matter, but teams have become too enamored by traits and not enamored enough by how good guys are at, you know, football.

In the video referenced above, McFarland makes some outrageous statements about Bo Nix and why he doesn't believe he's a fit for today's NFL.

"In the National Football League, you can't dink and dunk anymore. You've got to be able to push the ball down the field and be accurate with the football. I think the jury is still out on Bo Nix. For me, he was the least talented of all the quarterbacks taken in the first round. I'm going to give Sean Payton the benefit of the doubt."

- Booger McFarland, ESPN

As a rebuttal, Louis Riddick made some incredible points to really bury the idea of someone like Bo Nix not having "upside" in today's NFL.

"I think it's interesting when we discuss quarterbacks how the modern day discussion always turns to, 'What ultimately is the upside of the quarterback from an athletic profile? From an arm strength profile? From an off-schedule profile? How many dramatic plays can a guy make? Can he throw the football side-armed 50 yards on a rope down the field and make the play that makes everybody in the crowd go 'wooooh'. If a guy can do that, we give him the benefit of the doubt much more so than we give the guy who plays a more cerebral game, maybe isn't as talented athletically, maybe doesn't have the same yards per attempt, but makes good decisions, is accurate with the football, doesn't turn it over to the tune of maybe 45 touchdowns, 3 interceptions...

No one mistakes Drew Brees for being one of the better athletes at the quarterback position in the history of the game, or someone who had this super high ceiling because he had a Josh Allen arm or had the flare of Patrick Mahomes. "

- Louis Riddick

This is 100 percent the issue with evaluating quarterbacks in today's NFL. When a guy like Patrick Mahomes emerges, everybody begins trying to find the "next" version of that player. You start to evaluate players based on the flash as opposed to the substance. This isn't new, by any means, but it's burned enough NFL teams in recent years that you would think people might take it easy on the Broncos for going with someone like Nix at pick #12 overall.

So many analysts and pundits are talking like the Broncos made this egregious reach for Nix but you didn't hear the same type of stuff when the Jets took Zach Wilson 2nd overall. You didn't hear the same type of stuff when the Bears traded up for Justin Fields. The 49ers were applauded for trading up to get Trey Lance to get an athlete and physical specimen like that in Kyle Shanahan's offense.

NFL teams falling in love with upside and traits is common, but physical traits are prioritized over the ability to actually play the game. What makes Patrick Mahomes so great? He runs Andy Reid's offense to perfection, and he adds his unique playmaking ability at exactly the right times. It's not that Mahomes flings the ball 60 yards downfield every single down.

Being able to execute an NFL offense is the majority of the problem for so many of these young quarterbacks. They're so talented, but they just can't execute an NFL offense. Not enough value is placed on guys who can do that, at least when it comes to the NFL Draft. Bo Nix doesn't fit the ideal NFL Draft metrics because he's 24 years old this year and didn't have jaw-dropping side-arm throws once a week during his college career.

The proof will be on the field in the coming months. Bo Nix is going to have to go out there and actually execute the offense, but the difference between Nix and someone like Zach Wilson coming out in the NFL Draft is a perfect example of the problem the NFL has right now evaluating the quarterback position. People are so quick to fall in love with the physical that they forsake the football side of things. Fans, analysts, pundits, and frankly NFL talent evaluators have fallen in love with playmakers as opposed to play creators.