Broncos have huge advantages heading into Week 1 battle versus Seahawks
The Denver Broncos will soon travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks on the road to open their 2024-25 season. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix will make his regular-season debut with Denver, and Mike McDonald, the former Baltimore Ravens star defensive coordinator, will make his head coaching debut. A rookie quarterback against a rookie head coach. Can the Broncos secure the dub at Lumen Field on Sunday?
On Denver's side, Super Bowl champion head coach Sean Payton is entering year two with the Broncos. He got his guy at the quarterback position following the Russell Wilson saga. Here are some interesting numbers regarding coach Payton against rookie head coaches. His experience could help Denver get their second opening-week win in six years.
Before looking at the numbers, having a rookie head coach on the other side could help Denver. It can be an advantage because rookie head coaches usually make mistakes that cost games for their respective teams during their first couple of games like Nathaniel Hackett did with Denver a few seasons ago against Seattle by kicking a 64-yard field goal with no time left instead of going for it in fourth down and 5.
Here are the numbers:
31-12 & 13-3
Sean Payton has a 31-12 win-loss record against rookie head coaches throughout his career. Of the 43 games played, 16 have been within the first eight weeks of the respective season. Payton has lost only three of those games.
28 average points per game
Sean Payton's teams have consistently outscored their opponents when facing rookie head coaches, averaging 28 points per game in 43 matchups. This outperformance is particularly striking compared to Denver's 2023-24 season average with Russell Wilson starting for almost the entire season, which was seven points lower (21.0 PPG - 19th in the NFL).
+340, +93
+340 is the point differential Sean Payton's teams have had in those 43 games when playing against rookie head coaches. The point differential against those teams led by rookie head coaches in the 16 games played during the first eight weeks of the season, is +93. First weeks are important for these numbers because it is truly when you notice rookie head coaches making rookie mistakes.
Once again, this is an important game for the Denver Broncos, where in terms of situational football, clock management, and decisions, it could benefit Denver by having a veteran head coach in Sean Payton over the Seahawks' rookie head coach Mike McDonald.
Denver has a 1-4 win-loss record in week 1 since 2019, being the only win in 2021 against the New York Giants under Vic Fangio as head coach, and Teddy Bridgewater as the starting quarterback.