Broncos could have insanely valuable trade chip to move up in NFL Draft

The Denver Broncos ideal QB prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft might force them to move up significantly, which on the surface, could present a challenge. The dagger in the Broncos hopes of trading up was when the Minnesota Vikings acquired a second first-round pick. They did this through the Houston Texans, and now, Minnesota has the 11th and 23rd overall picks.

Their 11th pick is one pick higher than the Denver Broncos 12th overall pick, and both teams are in a similar boat with needing a franchise quarterback. However, the Vikings do not have a second or third-round pick, so I guess that benefits Denver a bit. With that being said, the Vikings appear to be in a better position to make a stronger offer to move up the draft board.

And with recent news that the Arizona Cardinals are listening to offers for their 4th overall pick, the Vikings could realistically make that jump. The Cardinals are GM'ed by Monti Ossenfort, who inherited a franchise quarterback in Kyler Murray but also did inherit a roster with huge needs. The Cardinals best path forward is trading down to acquire more capital, and if the base of the Vikings offer was their two first-round picks, that would give Arizona three first-rounders in 2024.

And that is just insane value. However, the one trade piece that the Denver Broncos have that could give them a chance to make a more valuable offer is CB Patrick Surtain II. Now, I know what you're probably thinking; "here this guy goes again wanting to trade Surtain!"

While it sounds ridiculous, it might not be. If we look at Jimmy Johnson's NFL Trade Value Chart, which assigns a point value to each draft pick, the Vikings' two first-round picks are worth 2,010 points, which ends up being worth slightly more than the 4th overall pick. The 4th overall pick is worth 1,800 points.

So, mathematically, the Vikings and Cardinals could swap the 11th and 23rd overall picks for the 4th overall pick, and it would be a fair deal. The Denver Broncos 12th overall pick is worth 1,200 points, so they'd have to make up over 800 points on the trade value chart to have a mathematically similar offer to the Cardinals to move up.

That 800 points is what the 21st overall pick is valued at. So then, you have to ask yourself, and this is where it gets subjective, "how many points would Patrick Surtain II be worth?" Well, I think we could all agree that he'd be worth more than the 21st overall pick. PS2 is the best DB in football, set to enter his age-24 season, and can effectively wipe out one half of the field, as he is truly excellent in coverage.

He was picked using the 9th overall selection back in the 2021 NFL Draft, which is worth 1,350 points. Even if we use that value to assign to Surtain, the Broncos 12th overall pick plus Surtain would come out to be worth 2,550 points, which is considerably more than the value of the 11th and 23rd overall picks.

Being that teams are probably going to have to overpay a bit to move up to that 4th pick, as there are likely multiple teams wanting to do it, the Broncos might be forced to include another pick in that deal. However, when we look at the literal point value of the draft chart, which teams use a variation of, the math works out in the Denver Broncos favor.