The Denver Broncos got a huge win at home against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5, a convincing 34-18 drubbing that started off with a 10-0 Raiders lead. The Broncos scored 34 unanswered points to take a commanding lead against the Raiders and a huge reason for those 34 unanswered points, obviously, was rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
To say the stat analysts don't like Bo Nix would be a bit of an understatement. We've been hearing all season about Nix's EPA on pass attempts of 15-plus yards, his EPA per play, his expected completion percentage or completion percentage above the expected...
There are so many valuable metrics out there that paint the picture of what we're seeing on the field, and then there are numbers that tell us absolutely nothing about what we're seeing on the field.
Are the stats lying regarding Broncos QB Bo Nix?
Believe it or not, the game we just saw from Nix in which he accounted for three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) and nearly had a fourth touchdown (the pass to Troy Franklin) was his worst performance of the season according to the common quarterback stat metric called "QBR".
QBR is not the same as quarterback rating, which is another complicated metric that measures a quarterback's efficiency. QBR is, frankly, the more reliable of the two major QB metrics. At least typically speaking. But Nix posted a 26.8 QBR against the Las Vegas Raiders despite completing over 70 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, no picks, a rushing touchdown, and no fumbles.
Again, it was Nix's lowest QBR of the entire 2024 season, including games in which he has thrown multiple interceptions. Is the stat broken?
Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew, who was benched after throwing two interceptions (including a pick-six), finished the game with a QBR of 46.7. That's 20 points higher than Nix's QBR on the day.
There's simply no explanation for it, even if you take into account that Nix was sacked three times. Minshew was sacked twice on fewer dropbacks. Nix's quarterback rating was way higher when he threw for just 60 yards against the New York Jets.
This is why it's important to take statistics -- even seemingly the most advanced statistics -- with a grain of salt. A lot of times, the folks putting together the stats have no idea what they're looking at in terms of what a play is supposed to be. We can all judge a play and whether the result is good or bad, but some of that is subjective. What we all have to trust right now is what we're seeing with our eyes, and that's Bo Nix playing pretty darn well.
Regardless of what his QBR might be.