The comeback appears to be over for the Denver Broncos. After starting the season a dismal 1-5, the Broncos came roaring back into the playoff picture, winning six of their next seven games. Unfortunately, three losses in the last four now have the team firmly outside the playoff picture with just two games remaining.
The Broncos haven't been able to take care of business down the stretch, a familiar feeling in the team's most recent playoff bids (2021, 2016). Unfortunately, it looks like the second-longest playoff drought in the NFL is about to be extended yet another season. The Broncos would have had a 42 percent chance at making the playoffs if they had beaten the New England Patriots on Christmas Eve, but after losing, those playoff odds have dipped to just five percent.
So, who is to blame for the team basically losing all playoff hope in Week 16?
1. Sean Payton, head coach
I think first and foremost, you have to point the finger at the head coach in this instance. Even if you don't want to argue about "play-calling" as a general discussion point, I think there's no question that play sequencing in this game from Sean Payton was sub-par at best. The Broncos had nothing working consistently on offense in this game until they got into desperation mode in the fourth quarter. And then when they finally tied the game in the 4th and had the ball with a chance to drive for the win, the play sequencing was once again highly questionable.
There was no timeout called to ice the kicker from 57 yards out at the end of the game, even though the kicker had already missed a pair of kicks in the game. Payton refused to let Bill Belichick take the game to overtime, which the Patriots were trying to do at the end of regulation, which would have -- likely at a minimum -- given his team a shot at swapping possessions.
You can argue not kicking a field goal on the first possession of the game for the Broncos and leaving points on the field.
Why is Jerry Jeudy not getting the ball (or even a target) until just over nine minutes left in the 4th quarter?
There were a lot of inexcusable miscues from Payton in this game for the Broncos and ultimately, decisions that cost the team the game.
2. Russell Wilson, quarterback
Russell Wilson's statistics make it look like he had a pretty good game against the Patriots, but statistics rarely tell the entire story.
I've consistently been one of Russell Wilson's biggest supporters through a lot of the rough times in Denver -- and there have been many -- but I think enough is enough when it comes to watching this offense flounder week after week. The Broncos are trying to be an offense that hits as many layups and three-pointers as possible, but they have no mid-range game.
This team was 4-of-13 in 3rd down situations, and Russell Wilson is largely to blame for that. He was sacked five times in this game. He nearly threw three interceptions in this game. Now, was Russ also a major reason why the Broncos were able to mount a 16-point comeback in the 4th? Absolutely. He's definitely got the clutch gene. But the Broncos need something more sustainable offensively than what Russell Wilson is providing.
3. Marvin Mims, WR/KR/PR
Marvin Mims giveth, and Marvin Mims taketh. Mims had a couple of incredible plays for the Broncos' offense in this game against the Patriots, including one of the best catches you'll see all year. He had an outstanding punt return that set the Broncos up in scoring position.
He also had a fumble on a kickoff return at the worst possible time. The Broncos had just gone down 16-9 and it felt like an insurmountable lead at the time for the Patriots. It felt like a dagger to the season when Mims fumbled a kickoff return and the Patriots recovered it for a touchdown to go up 23-9.
Mims's big reception helped the Broncos come back in the 4th quarter, but the damage was done on his fumbled kickoff return.
4. Pass rush
Part of what made the Broncos' defense so great during a nine-game stretch from Week 6 through Week 14 was the fact that they were rushing the passer exceptionally well. A couple of weeks ago, the Broncos lost their sack leader -- Nik Bonitto -- to a knee injury, and it's no coincidence that the team has had arguably its two worst game rushing the quarterback since then.
The pass rush got to Bailey Zappe on the first play from scrimmage in this game, but that success wasn't sustained throughout the game. The Broncos had just one more sack and four more QB hits on Zappe throughout the course of the game, and although they were able to make enough plays to get off the field on third downs (holding the Patriots to 3-of-13 in that category), the pass rush didn't come through in the moments it was needed the most.
And the Patriots offense took advantage of that.
5. Javonte Williams, RB
It appears as though Javonte Williams has hit a bit of a wall in his first season back from major knee surgery. Williams made a very quick comeback from an injury that looked like it could keep him out well into the 2023 season, but he's played all year and has even looked great at times out there.
But lately, it's been worse than tough sledding for the former second-round pick out of North Carolina. Williams is not breaking tackles, he's running directly into contact, he's droping passes, and he had a game-altering fumble in this one against the Patriots.
On the team's first possession of the game, Williams got three carries from six yards out and failed to punch it in. It wasn't entirely bad from Williams in this game, but overall it was another poor performance from someone the Broncos need to be stepping up right now.