Even though he's had a markedly better season in 2023 compared to the disaster that was 2022, it's very possible that the Denver Broncos could be looking at a quarterback change in 2024 with Russell Wilson. Wilson has played two seasons in Denver, and after signing a massive contract extension in 2022, the Broncos seem financially tied to the veteran beyond this season.
But is that really the case? Do the Broncos have a way out if they want it? The short answer to that question is yes, but it's worth a bit more exploration. Put simply, the Broncos have to decide if they want to guarantee Wilson's $37 million base salary for 2025 in March of 2024. To have to decide a year out if they want to guarantee Wilson that much cash -- given what we've seen in two seasons -- is not going to be an easy decision. Or maybe it will be.
The fact of the matter is, the potential that Russell Wilson leaves Denver in 2024 is real, even with dead cap hits. The Broncos may have to be willing to eat some massive dead cap hits in order to save that $37 million in cash. Getting ahead of ourselves (a lot), what happens if Russell Wilson does leave Denver? Where is he going to wind up?
Let's look at a handful of possibilities.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
If there's one team in the NFL right now that's in need of a quarterback to come in and steady the ship, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers, more than most teams around the league right now, could use a quarterback like Russell Wilson who can push the ball deep and make plays, but also do a pretty good job of taking care of the ball and operating the offense.
The Steelers are well-equipped to bring in a veteran quarterback at this point and I don't think Mike Tomlin is going to tolerate the level of incompetence we've seen for that franchise in 2024.
Pittsburgh has been able to endure even without strong QB play the last couple of seasons, but their hopes are hanging on by a thread in 2023. If this season continues to go south for them, don't be shocked at all if they show interest in the veteran QB market, however that ends up shaking out. Getting a proven commodity like Russell Wilson on a short-term deal could be perfect for the Steelers in 2024.
2. Atlanta Falcons
The phrase "pee or get off the pot" was made for the current version of the Atlanta Falcons. Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot have been the head coach/GM duo of the Falcons now since 2021. They have not made any truly substantial move at the quarterback position since being placed in those positions, and frankly, you can't help but wonder if it might cost them their jobs in 2024.
But all things considered, I like what's being built in Atlanta right now. Although the combination of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke hasn't worked out, those guys have effectively just had two years to figure that position out as Matt Ryan played his final season for the Falcons in 2021.
Let's say the brain trust in Atlanta is given another year to get things right, they might need to turn to a more established veteran like Russell Wilson to get the job done. Wilson could lean on that running game Atlanta has with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
Another big factor here that makes this an intriguing possibility is the fact that Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton has worked extensively in the past with Falcons GM Terry Fontenot. Fontenot got his first NFL job with the New Orleans Saints and worked there even longer than Payton himself, joining the organization in 2003 and staying through 2020.
That open line of communication between Payton and Fontenot could come into play if the Broncos are able to work out some type of trade for Wilson, or even if the Falcons are just looking into the possibility of adding Russ.
3. Washington Commanders
Back in 2022, the Washington Commanders made an offer to the Seattle Seahawks to try and acquire Russell Wilson...
Washington offered high picks in the next three drafts to the Seahawks for QB Russell Wilson, per sources. But it became apparent to the Commanders that Seattle preferred to trade him out of the NFC.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 8, 2022
So Washington's QB hunt continues.
Now, the Commanders are under new management. There's no guarantee that the current regime (or future regime) will still want Russell Wilson under center of their team. But you can bet that the new ownership in Washington is going to want this Commanders team competing as quickly as possible.
Is that more likely to happen with Russell Wilson or Sam Howell?
Well, with all due respect to Howell and the Commanders -- who beat the Broncos this year -- you can't help but think that most teams would prefer the veteran Wilson. Especially with a team that looks like it could be ready to compete, at least offensively.
The Commanders have a solid foundation with guys like Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Jahan Dotson, and others who make up a pretty impressive group of skill players. The Commanders could built the next couple of seasons around a player like Russell Wilson and see what happens.
Ultimately, it just feels a little unlikely that Wilson will be back in Denver in 2024. Is it impossible? Not at all, but even if Sean Payton decides to move on and go a different direction at quarterback next year, I think there would be suitors for Russ based on the way he's played in 2023.