The Denver Broncos got themselves in a pretty interesting situation. Every single AFC playoff team but the Broncos won in Week 16, but Denver still controls their own destiny for the AFC West title and the first overall seed in the AFC.
The team getting out to a 12-2 start, coupled with how the other top AFC teams started, actually gave the Denver Broncos a scenario where they were able to afford a loss and still be in good shape, and that is precisely what happened.
If the Broncos win in Week 17 and Week 18, no matter what else happens, they'll be the first seed in the AFC for the first time since 2015, but a loss in any of the final two games could really throw the AFC Playoff Picture for a spin. Well, fortunately, the percentages are still on their side, so that's at least something approaching a huge Week 17 showdown...
The Denver Broncos are still projected to earn the first-round bye in the AFC Playoff Picture
According to playoffstatus.com, the Denver Broncos currently have a 47% chance at the top seed in the AFC for the 2025 playoffs. Here are some other odds for the top seed in the conference with other teams:
Patriots: 39%
Jaguars: 8%
Chargers: 3%
Bills: 2%
Texans <1%
As you can see, Denver has some pretty good odds compared to the other teams in the AFC. Well, there is still a chance that the Broncos do not earn the top seed, and here are their odds for the other playoff seeds:
2nd Seed: 13%
3rd Seed: 14%
5th Seed: 9%
6th Seed: 16%
7th Seed: 2%
As you can clearly see, the numbers paint a great picture, but what happens if the Broncos do clinch the no. 1 seed? Who would they play. Well, the playoff rules would make it so the lowest remaining seeded team would face the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round.
That game would be in Denver, and the Broncos would also have homefield advantage throughout the entire playoffs as well. Ever since the NFL moved to a seven-team playoff format, it's only the no. 1 seed that gets the bye.
All in all, the 11-game winning streak that the Broncos went on through Week 16 was a great thing - it put the franchise in an outstanding position to earn a great playoff seed, and it is still very likely that this team is at least hosting a playoff game in 2025.