The Denver Broncos won 14 regular season games last year and earned the top seed for the playoffs, which not only secures a first-round bye, but it also gives the team home-field advantage. Given how tough and competitive the NFL is, there may not be a bigger playoff advantage in all of sports than a top seed in either conference.
The Broncos could certainly do this again in the 2026 NFL Season, but it obviously won't be easy. And when you look at how close the standings were in the AFC playoffs, the Broncos ended up being just as close to not earning the top seed and actually falling down to the third seed, which would have been a much tougher playoff route.
Even though the first game of the season between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks doesn't involve Denver, it could end up giving the Broncos a huge advantage when the regular season ends, and the playoff run begins.
Denver Broncos' playoff seeding could end up again being decided by one game
Here is how the AFC playoff standings looked in 2025:
1. Denver Broncos, 14-3
2. New England Patriots, 14-3
3. Jacksonville Jaguars, 13-4
4. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-7
The Steelers aren't important for this exercise, but these were the four division winners. Right off the bat, we know that the Broncos lost to the Jaguars at home near the end of the 2025 season, so despite Jacksonville owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver, the Broncos got the nod as the higher seed due to the better record.
And as for the Patriots, despite having the same overall record, divisional record, and conference record as the Broncos, Denver got the nod, as the Patriots had actually lost to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 of the 2025 season. Since the Broncos had beaten the Raiders twice, they had earned the common opponent tiebreaker and secured the AFC's top seed.
Had the Broncos finished 13-4, no matter what team they would have lost to, they would have fallen down to the third seed in the playoffs and had not earned the first-round bye or home-field advantage.
Every single of the team's 14 wins was vitally important - there was no wiggle room. And with the Patriots facing the Seahawks in Week 1, there is a very real chance that New England loses and starts off 0-1 yet again.
And while the Broncos could also lose to the Seahawks this year, Denver gets that game at home and should have a much easier time dealing with the defending champions. While there are endless scenarios that can play out here, Denver could end up with a major seeding advantage after Week 1. New England falling to Seattle, but Denver potentially winning could again give the team a tiebreaker over the club that beat them in the AFC Championship Game during the 2025 season.
While another 14-3 season might not feel likely right now, this same idea could play out if both teams finished, for example, 12-5.
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