The Denver Broncos' 2025 season has been one for the ages, and there isn't any reason to believe why this team can't win it all this year. After a pretty disappointing 1-2 start, which included two losses as time expired, Denver has since won 11 games in a row.
This team has not lost a game since September, and, if all goes well, Week 16 could see the team clinch the AFC West title and no. 1 overall seed in the playoffs. Denver has not done either since the 2015 NFL Season. Anyway, a huge reason why this team has been able to win so many games is their stellar record in one-score games.
They have done a total 180 in one-score games this year from last, and we've really seen this team play their best in the fourth quarter. Denver has many qualities of being a Super Bowl champion this year, and their fourth quarter magic is one of them. Well, a key stat dealing with the final quarter of the game does bode well for Denver's chances in Week 16 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Denver Broncos' fourth quarter point differential is much better than the Jaguars'
Here are the point differentials for each NFL team split into each quarter. Take note of where the Broncos and Jaguars stand in the fourth quarter:
NFL point differential by quarter pic.twitter.com/UpmQFkszKE
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 18, 2025
The Denver Broncos have a fourth quarter point differential of +54, which is the second-highest in the league, only behind the Houston Texans. The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, have a fourth quarter point differential of -27, which is the seventh-worst in the league.
How does this happen? Well, it boils down to coaching and experience. The Denver Broncos were horrendous in one-score games last year and clearly got that necessary experience to excel in them this year. If you add a top-tier coaching staff led by a future Hall of Fame head coach in Sean Payton to the mix, Denver doing a 180 in one-score games makes a lot of sense.
In a lot of ways, the 2025 Jaguars are a bit like the 2024 Denver Broncos. They are actually 5-3 in one-score games, which is a solid record, but they are getting outscored in the fourth quarter, and it's clear that they just do not have the callus that the Broncos have built up.
Denver is also playing this game at home, so the lopsided fourth quarter scoring between Denver and Jacksonville could really be in the Broncos' favor in Week 16. This isn't guaranteeing a win or anything, but it's a huge factor that could contribute to a victory.