The Denver Broncos have one very simple path to the playoffs in their Week 18 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs: Win and you're in.
But beyond just winning against the Chiefs, there are other ways the Broncos can clinch a playoff berth in the 2024 season. With so much on the line, what are all the possible scenarios for this team to make it to the playoffs -- win or lose against the Chiefs?
Let's look at all the possible scenarios and talk through the likelihood of each.
Broncos playoff clinching scenarios in Week 18 against the Chiefs
1. Win and in
It doesn't get any simpler than this. The Denver Broncos control their own playoff fate. If they beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18, they are in the playoffs. It's easier said than done, but wouldn't everyone be a lot more on edge if the entire Chiefs roster were playing?
Interestingly enough, the Broncos' loss in Kansas City earlier this year may inadvertently help them because if the Chiefs were fighting for the #1 seed right now, they wouldn't be resting starters. The Broncos might benefit from a loss earlier this season in some roundabout way.
Of course, if all things remained the exact same, that game would also represent their 10th win this year.
Regardless of the tangent, the Broncos just need to win and they're in. Take care of your own business and don't worry about anyone else's.
2. Tie and you're in
This is probably the least likely of all, but if the Broncos tie against the Chiefs, they make it to the playoffs as well.
3. Broncos, Bengals, Dolphins all lose
This is the scenario in which the Broncos could clinch a playoff spot if they lose. If Denver loses, they will need the Bengals and Dolphins to also lose in order to make it to the playoffs.
The Bengals play on Saturday night against the Steelers (on the road) and we'll know by the time we all go to bed on Saturday night whether or not this scenario is even possible. Everyone seems to think the Bengals are going to keep on rolling and win that game, but you never know.
The Dolphins play the Jets (in New Jersey) the same time the Broncos are playing the Chiefs. So we won't know whether or not they are going to give Denver any help until that point in time. But this could be Aaron Rodgers's last game and maybe the Jets pull off an upset.
The Broncos have dropped a lot of games against quality opponents this season, a clear sign of a young team. They have also kept every loss (except on the road vs. Baltimore) to a one-score game, which is impressive in its own right. But they have had teams on the ropes, like the Chargers a couple of weeks ago (blown 11-point lead) and the Chiefs before that (blocked game-winning FG attempt).
Denver has been competitive and they have blown out bad teams, winning eight of their nine games by nine or more points this year. They've shown tremendous grit and fortitude and have a chance to end their playoff drought which has been ongoing since the 2015 season.