The Denver Broncos took care of business on Christmas night in Kansas City with their 20-13 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos needed a win, and they lost to the Los Angeles Chargers to be able to wrap up the AFC West this week, and they received the second half of that task on Saturday night. Denver has won their first division title in a decade, and will host at least one game in the NFL playoffs.
The Broncos coaching staff has maintained all season that their first goal was to win the division. But that being officially checked off the to-do list, the Broncos can ask if they’re focused on their second goal: securing the top seed in the AFC and the first-round bye that comes with it. Thanks to their win on Thursday night, the Broncos will enter the final week of the regular season with the chance to finish on top of the conference for the first time since 2015.
If the Broncos can knock off the Chargers at home, they will secure the conference’s top seed. If they lose, a few different scenarios can unfold that would see the Broncos finishing anywhere from the number one seed to the third seed.
Their two opponents for the top seed, the Jaguars and Patriots, both have a wide array of outcomes for themselves, too. The Jaguars can finish anywhere between the top seed and the sixth seed, while the Patriots can range anywhere from the top seed to the third seed.
Here are the playoff seeding scenarios for the Broncos entering Week 18
The No. 1 seed
The clenching scenario for the Broncos and the top seed in the conference is incredibly straightforward: win, and you are in. The Broncos can also clinch the top spot if neither the Jaguars nor the Patriots win next week, but that seems incredibly unlikely given their schedules. Very simply, the Broncos must win. The Broncos control whether or not the road to the Super Bowl runs through Denver.
The No. 2 Seed
The Broncos can be the second seed if they lose, either the Patriots or Jaguars win, and the other team loses. To be a little simpler, a Broncos loss with the Jags and Patriots going 1-1 ends in the Broncos as the second seed. This feels to be the least likely for the Broncos, considering New England plays the Dolphins and the Jaguars play the Titans. The odds of one of them losing are slim
The No. 3 Seed
This is the worst-case scenario for the Broncos, but it is far more likely than the second seed. If the Broncos lose at home and the two other teams win, the Broncos would finish in the third seed. In this scenario, the Jaguars' head-to-head win over the Broncos would eliminate the Broncos from the three-way tie. This would result in the Patriots having the bye week in the divisional round, the Jaguars as the second seed, and the Broncos hosting either the Chargers or the Texans.
In a crazy scenario, the Broncos in the third seed plus a Texans win over the Colts would result in the Broncos hosting the Chargers for the second straight week, this time in a playoff game.