With the Kansas City Chiefs having nothing to play for in Week 18, the Denver Broncos' odds for the postseason have slowly risen over the past few days. You may find different percentages based on where you look, but after the Broncos' brutal Week 17 loss, their odds dipped to around 55%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
And with the Chiefs having wrapped up the no. 1 seed in the AFC, there was a small bit of news earlier in the week that Patrick Mahomes would not play in this Week 18, and while nothing has been official from the Chiefs yet, many people in the know are saying that the team is going to rest some notable starters.
The Broncos' playoff odds are actually rising!
We could be looking at a game where the Chiefs are not playing guys like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Joe Thuney, DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, Justin Reid, and perhaps many others. The Chiefs have done this before as well; they have rested starters during the last game of the season when they have clinched a playoff seed.
This would not be some new trend for them, and as the week closes out, it's likely that Chiefs' head coach Andy Reid is going to make some official declarations. Well, NFL Next Gen Stats now has the Denver Broncos with an 83% chance to make the playoffs.
That percentage could change a bit here and there, but when we get closer to Sunday, those odds may be even higher when there is official word on which Chiefs' players are not playing. This is good news for the Broncos, as if the Chiefs were trying to clinch the no. 1 seed in this game, it would be a very tough task for the Broncos.
But just think about this for a second; the Denver Broncos did last beat the Chiefs in Denver in 2023, and in Week 10 this year, they outplayed them at full-strength at Arrowhead, and if it wasn't for a shocking blocked field goal, Denver would have won the game.
I am not saying the Denver Broncos can't lose, but they have everything in front of them and a great opportunity to take care of business and not turn this into a major issue. We might be in a situation where the KC Chiefs are not only not playing many starters, but also come out with a vanilla game plan, practically begging the Denver Broncos to beat them.