The Denver Broncos are 5-4 entering a Week 10 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. If the season ended today, they would be the 7th seed in the AFC, which seems pretty wide open as far as what we've seen in recent years.
It's still going to be a tough battle to the finish line this season, but entering the second half of the season, what are the Broncos' odds of actually making it to the playoffs? Broncos Country is hyper aware of the fact that the team has not made the playoffs since the team won Super Bowl 50 back in February of 2016.
After the team's loss against Baltimore, and entering Week 10 with a road trip to Kansas City, what are the Broncos' playoff odds looking like?
Broncos playoff odds heading into Week 10 of 2024 season
Current AFC playoff standings
1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (7-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-3)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
7. Denver Broncos (5-4)
On the bubble
8. Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)
10. New York Jets (3-6)
The teams with the most at stake in Week 10 😬
— PFF (@PFF) November 7, 2024
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For the Broncos to be at the point where they still have a 42 percent chance at the playoffs if they lose is pretty remarkable. I think any fan in Broncos Country would have been thrilled with that option if that were given at the beginning of the season.
But a win against the Chiefs, especially on the road? Well, that would go a very long way. The Broncos getting to 6-4 is one thing, but improving to 2-1 in the AFC West is another entirely. Not to mention, three of the Broncos' five wins this year have come against NFC opponents (Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers) with the other two coming against the Jets and Raiders.
And looking at the standings, the win against the Jets is actually looming pretty large right now. In the event of those two teams having the same record, the Broncos would have the advantage of the tie-breaker. And for the remainder of the season, the Broncos will have opportunities in head-to-head matchups against all of the Bengals, Colts, and Chargers (again).
A win against the Chiefs would give the Broncos a 3-3 record against AFC opponents this season and would also prove that they can hang with the best of the best. This is a young Denver team that was given a giant slice of humble pie against the Baltimore Ravens, but the way they played in the first half of the season set them up with a little bit of a cushion in the second half.
The Broncos lead the final Wild Card spot right now by two full games over the Colts, who have pivoted to Joe Flacco at the quarterback position. The Bengals have lost six games already, which gives them virtually zero room for error. The New York Jets will borderline need to win out to have a shot at the postseason, although getting to nine or 10 wins would make it possible for them.
For the Broncos, it might be that they are truly only halfway there. It looks like 10 wins in the AFC will guarantee you a spot at this point. That means the Broncos have to win five of their final eight games this season. And they have two matchups against Kansas City within those eight games. A win against the Chiefs in Week 10 would boost the Broncos' playoff odds to over 70 percent. They would hold that 7th spot with a loss and might not even lose any ground depending on what happens with the Colts (hosting the Buffalo Bills).
The Chargers have a home game against the Titans this week (of course) before taking on the Bengals the following week. The tough news for Denver? They have the 8th-most difficult strength of schedule remaining. They are behind only the Ravens in that category among AFC Wild Card teams, and the Ravens already have seven wins.
We're truly about to find out what this Broncos team is made of.