With just three games remaining in the 2025 regular season, the 12-2 Denver Broncos hold a two-game lead over the New England Patriots for the top seed in the AFC. Denver sits a game up on the Patriots in the standings, but a clinched tie-breaker based on winning percentage against common opponents adds a second game to that difference. Without a doubt, the Broncos are the class of the AFC through 15 weeks.
Sean Payton's team has surprised just about everyone in the league aside from themselves. This team has placed lofty expectations on themselves for two seasons now, and both times they drew incredible pushback. Payton declared his 2024 team a playoff contender when many figured they were playing for the first overall pick, and he declared this team a Super Bowl contender when many figured their 2024 playoff run was a fluke.
With their sights now firmly set at the top of the conference, the Broncos find themselves in a premier spot to bring home the AFC's top seed and the lone conference bye. With three games remaining, the Broncos can wrap up both the division crown and the AFC crown in the coming weeks. Let us take a look at what the scenarios to clinch the first seed look like for Denver.
Here's how and when the Broncos can wrap up the AFC's top seed
There are currently three contenders for the top seed in the AFC: Denver, New England, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Given that the Jaguars are 10-4 and currently leading the AFC South, they still have a somewhat reasonable chance at the top seed, especially if they beat Denver next week. If they lose to the Broncos, however, they are eliminated from contention for the top seed.
The math is simple for the Broncos to wrap up the top seed: two wins and you get the first week off and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The Broncos figure to be the favorites in their next two games, but the Jaguars and the road in Kansas City present tough challenges. Their final game of the season comes at home against the Chargers, but the Broncos would like for their playoff fate to be settled by then.
The Broncos can clinch the top seed sooner if they receive some help from other teams within the AFC. The Patriots are set to face the Ravens on Sunday, and the Ravens are in the heat of the AFC North divisional race. The Ravens just humiliated the Bengals this past week, and are riding some momentum into a potential playoff matchup next Sunday.
If the Broncos win two more games, they'll wrap up the AFC's top seed. The earliest they can wrap up the top of the conference would be Week 17, but they could use some help before that. The Broncos are finally firing on all cylinders, much as they did in the days of Peyton Manning, and could be riding it to a Super Bowl championship.