Patrick Mahomes is largely seen as the best QB in the NFL, but Chiefs fans might have to accept a harsh reality with this recent revelation.
Mahomes himself could retire tomorrow and end up in the Hall of Fame, as he's had an all-time career that already consists of three Super Bowl titles and two league MVP awards. The Chiefs have made the Super Bowl three years in a row and are obviously going for a fourth in 2025.
Well, with the way the Denver Broncos have revived their franchise, they're absolutely a big threat to KC, and while some Chiefs fans might not entirely be sold on the Broncos and QB Bo Nix, this statistic does paint a harsh reality that Chiefs fans may have to accept.
Is Patrick Mahomes the QB that people thought Bo Nix was?
Is Patrick Mahomes turning into a 'checkdown merchant'?
Just take this food for thought for a second:
Man pic.twitter.com/q7EfIiGU4k
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 26, 2025
From PFF, what you see is Mahomes average depth of target, which means how far he's throwing the ball down the field on a given pass. It was at its highest in 2018, his first year starting, and his ADOT, as it's commonly abbreviated, was 6th out of 31 QBs. Well, fast-forward to now, and his ADOT was dead-last in 2023 and 30th out of 32 in 2024.
Essentially, the veteran QB has turned into a 'dink and dunk' passer, which was something Bo Nix was labeled for much of the 2024 NFL Draft process and even into his rookie season. Before Chiefs fans get too high and mighty about their QB, they should stop and consider this harsh reality.
Now yes, the Chiefs are still very good, but this statistic is absolutely concerning, and even when Tyreek Hill was still in the picture, Mahomes' ADOT was falling. You almost have to wonder if NFL defenses figured out the Chiefs offense, and the Chiefs themselves have not figured out how to open up the field like they did early in Patrick Mahomes' career.