The Denver Broncos travel to Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs in what is the first Monday Night Football game of the 2026 NFL Season. As of now, there is no indication that Chiefs' quarterback Patrick Mahomes won't play.
This would be his first game back from a torn ACL he suffered near the end of the 2025 season, so whether you look at this from the lens of his injury return or it being a major divisional showdown, this Week 1 tilt already has some major stakes.
With that said, the Broncos have beaten the Chiefs three times in a row, which also includes, in total, a three-game winning streak. The tide is absolutely turning in the AFC West, and if the Broncos can do these three things, they'll win in Week 1.
Denver Broncos will beat the Chiefs in Week 1 if these 3 things are successfully done
Win the time of possession battle
The Broncos actually lost the time of possession battle by about one minute in their home victory against the Chiefs during the 2025 season, but did win this battle by nearly double during the team's victory in Arrowhead on Christmas. The reasoning for needing to win the time of possession is simple: keeping Mahomes off the field is never a bad thing.
While he hasn't necessarily had the 'magic' that was present earlier in his career, he's typically always the best player on the field and has made some special things happen, but those things won't happen if he's on the sideline. Establishing the run and capitalizing on advantegous matchups with the plethorea of playmakers the Broncos have should be enough to net Denver a time of possession victory.
Get as many players involved on offense as possible
The Chiefs lost two key secondary starters in free agency this offseason in Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook, and they also traded Trent McDuffie. Kansas City also saw their highest ceiling linebacker in Leo Chenal sign with the Washington Commanders.
This defense is considerably less talented now than it was heading into the 2025 season, so this could be a perfect matchup for the Broncos to exploit. The Chiefs may not even have a clear-cut CB1 at the moment, and while the Broncos do not have overwhelmingly talented playmakers, the unit is quite good with Jaylen Waddle now in the mix.
With Waddle, Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, and even someone like Pat Bryant getting involved, the Chiefs overall lack of talent, or at least the talent difference between the Denver offense and the Kansas City Chiefs, could give the Broncos a monumental advantage.
While some might want Waddle to get a ton of work in Week 1, stretching the Chiefs secondary as thinly as possible could be the key to victory here.
Expose an offensive line likely without LT Josh Simmons
Kahlil Benson could be in line to start for the Chiefs at left tackle, as it doesn't seem promising that Josh Simmons is going to play in Week 1. Benson was an undrafted free agent signing this year, so the tackle situation just isn't in a good spot for Kansas City right now.
Jaylon Moore is likely starting for the team at right tackle, and he's also someone who comes with question marks. While sending pressure at Mahomes isn't always a smart thing, generating pressure without blitzing could end up being the most likely scenario.
Even with Jonathon Cooper on the exempt list and not playing, third-year EDGE Jonah Elliss should be in line to get the start, and when you look at his and Nik Bonitto's speed off the edge, it's not impossible to think that the Broncos will be able to generate some quick pressure.
The Chiefs are clearly going to try and to run the ball and execute short, quick passes, but if the Broncos are able to at least contain the rushing attack, the Chiefs won't be able to survive this game without throwing the ball down the field. It's at that point where the Broncos' defensive front should be able to take advantage of a shaky, at best, offensive line.
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