The Denver Broncos are in a great playoff spot in the AFC, holding down the seventh and final seed, and their odds get very high with a Week 12 win. NFL Next Gen Stats gives the Broncos a 66% chance to make the postseason in 2024. This is about a two-thirds shot at getting into the dance.
Well, Next Gen Stats did recently update their odds with a win and a loss in Week 12. The Broncos face the Las Vegas Raiders and look to sweep them for the first time since the 2014 NFL Season. With a win in Week 12, their playoff odds would rise to 74%.
Yes, 74%
Another Broncos win gets them super close to the postseason
A 74% chance to make the playoffs is what the Broncos could be looking at with a Week 12 win. Denver played Las Vegas back in Week 5. And they were at risk of falling into a brutal 17-3 hole at home before a Patrick Surtain II pick-six totally changed the game for the better.
Denver put up 34 total points on the Raiders, and if it wasn't for a garbage-time touchdown from Vegas, the Broncos would have held them at that 10 point total. This was also the first 100 passer rating game of Bo Nix's career, as he went 19/27 for 206 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and also added one rushing touchdown.
This was also the first three-touchdown game of his NFL career as well. The Broncos will have to deal with Maxx Crosby, who always plays well against the Denver Broncos, so Crosby is surely going to find himself in the backfield. Nix has done a nice job at avoiding sacks, and he's also mostly stopped creating his own pressure, which was an issue early in the season.
Crosby actually hasn't had a sack in a month, so he's due for one. On the season, he's got 6.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss, and 14 QB hits, so he's not really stuffing the stat sheet like in prior seasons.
On offense, the Raiders are trotting out Gardner Minshew II, who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season. The team does not have Davante Adams, but rookie TE sensation Brock Bowers is playing out of his mind, and he's also going to be a handful to deal with. In my opinion, if the Broncos can figure out how to stop one of Crosby or Bowers, they will win this game.