After a shaky 1-2 start in the 2025 NFL Season, the Denver Broncos decided to win 11 games in a row and soon cemented themselves as one of the best teams in football, but during that 11-game winning streak, nine of those contests were a one-score result.
Many people had praised the Broncos for being able to win all of these close games, arguing that the team was simply better in clutch situations. Others, however, did not think all of these one-score wins meant that the Broncos were a juggernaut, as they wondered why Denver constantly failed to pull away from many opponents.
But in today's parity-filled NFL, blowouts are regular happenings. Being able to win close is a much more valuable skill, and one-score games happen way more than blowouts, so in reality, the Broncos winning all of those one-score games further reinforced the idea that they were and are a juggernaut, but some people are already looking at the team to regress in 2025.
Denver Broncos projected to regress in the 2026 NFL Season
Garrett Podell of CBS Sports predicted that the Broncos are going to take a major step back in the 2026 season.
"The Denver Broncos are similar to the Bears in terms of being a regression candidate. Of their 14 regular-season wins, Denver won an NFL record 12 in comebacks. The previous record was 11 by the Chiefs in 2024, and the Broncos tied the Chiefs' mark with 11 one-score wins. As mentioned with the Bears, the Chiefs fell back to earth and missed the playoffs entirely in 2025.
It's also worth wondering whether Bo Nix could regress in 2026, given his recovery from an ankle fracture and a relative step back in his performance in 2025. His efficiency metrics -- completion percentage, touchdown to interception ratio, and passer rating -- all declined to being ranked in the bottom 10 among 33 qualified quarterbacks, while his pass yards per attempt average has remained in the bottom 10 in the NFL in each of his first two seasons.
Denver's defense will likely remain elite thanks to retaining defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and the vast majority of their defensive starters, but the uncertainty around Nix's offensive performance could make the Broncos' record look considerably different in 2026."
There are a couple of clear flaws here in Podell's argument. Firstly, he cites the Kansas City Chiefs 2024 season where they had 11 comeback wins, but in 2025, the Chiefs did indeed fall back down to earn in 2025. The main thing with Kansas City, though, is that the roster was and is relatively average.
The Chiefs slim margins in 2024 weren't because they were a clutch team, it was because they just did not have enough roster talent. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs' overall talent is in the bottom-half across the NFL. Kansas City regressed because the front office continues to fail to add enough good players.
The Broncos do not have that issue, as this roster was no worse than top-10 in the league in 2025. Podell then notes that Bo Nix underwent a statistical regression from 2024 into 2025, but he fails to note that Denver couldn't run the ball consistently after Week 10, and that the team struggled with drops. Nix had a much better feel for the offense throughout the season and was more consistent from Week 1 to Week 18, but his receivers constantly let him down, and J.K. Dobbins going down with a foot injury made the offense one-dimensional.
Overall, there isn't much reason to believe that the Broncos will have a major regression in 2026. If anything, this team should remain where they are, but perhaps could begin pulling away from opponents with an improved cast of skill players on offense.