The Denver Broncos 2025 season honestly felt like a dream at times. After a shaky 1-2 start thanks two two walk-off field goals in a row, the Broncos went on an 11-game win streak and ended up wrapping up the AFC West title and the top seed in the playoffs.
While those 11 wins didn't come without some late-game drama, wins are wins in this league. Some of the chatter this offseason with the Broncos has been about a potential regression, and the main argument has been and continues to be that the team simply isn't going to continue winning one-score games as frequently in 2026 as they did in 2025.
And a prominent NFL voice just hashed out his reasons why the Broncos will regress in 2026, giving the team bulletin board material at the right time.
Bill Barnwell of ESPN predicts the Denver Broncos to regress in the 2026 season
Bill Barnwell of ESPN outlines a ton of reasons why he believes the Broncos will regress. Here is some of what he had to say:
"For one, they can't count on all of those players being available quite as often in 2026. Though the offense was injured at about a league-average rate, the defense was the third healthiest in the NFL, per FTN's adjusted games lost. The only starter who sat out more than three games was oft-injured linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who was one of the two players not returning to the roster. (The other is defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers.) This was the league's fifth-oldest team on a snap-weighted age basis a year ago, and I'd be a little concerned about some of those veterans getting worn down and staying healthy through a full 2026 season.
Vance Joseph's defense had been excellent since the start of 2024, defying concerns about defenses maintaining their consistency from year to year. Though the Broncos were among the league's elite units for most of the season, I'd just point out that things began to get iffy down the stretch.
Denver was second in the NFL in points allowed per possession through its Week 11 bye. But over the next four games -- facing the Commanders, Raiders, Packers and Jaguars -- that fell to 21st. The defense was propped up by facing backup quarterbacks Chris Oladokun and Trey Lance over the final two weeks of the regular season, then it gave up 30 points to the Bills in that divisional round thriller. The defense was excellent in the conference championship game, but that was also played in awful weather on a day when neither offense did much because of the conditions, at least for most of the second half.
Though there were signs of growth from Nix in his second season as a passer, the Broncos roughly stayed put in offensive efficiency, actually dropping from 15th in points scored per drive in 2024 to 18th in 2025. Waddle should provide a needed upgrade over Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant, playing across from Courtland Sutton, with the hope that the former Dolphins receiver can serve as a valuable contributor on the sort of in-breakers Nix hasn't targeted consistently over his first two years.
If the Broncos don't improve on offense to make up for a possible defensive decline, I'm not sure their formula will lead to 14 wins. The Broncos went 9-2 in one-score games, and though they could have won both of those narrow defeats, they also had some very generous breaks late in games."
There is a lot here, but this is the meat and potatoes of Barnwell's argument as to why the Broncos could regress in the 2026 season. Let's unpack it...
Barnwell mentions injuries, or lack thereof, on the defensive side of the ball, but the Broncos have continually been among the healthiest teams in the NFL since head coach Sean Payton took over back in 2023. That surely isn't a coincidence, as Payton typically likes to push the physicality envelope during the offseason to get the players calloused up more before the season. It works.
While there is always some form of luck with injuries, we can't pretend like Denver being able to stay healthier than most these last three years is all luck. Barnwell also notes a 'points per drive' metric that actually got worse for Denver from 2024 into 2025, and while Barnwell mentions the Jaylen Waddle acquisition, he doesn't mention the 43 drops that the Broncos dealt with on offense, which was the second-highest total in the NFL, according to Pro Football Reference. Only the Jacksonvlle Jaguars had more drops in 2025.
Last year, the Broncos also ranked second in the NFL, but the pass-catchers only registered 32 drops, not 43. With 11 more drops in 2025, it's not unknown as to why the offensive efficiency took a bit of a nosedive.
What is interesting is that Barnwell doesn't mention the J.K. Dobbins injury and the negative impact that had on the offense. While Dobbins has always struggled to stay healthy, not having him for nearly half the season surely contributed to the Broncos not lighting it up on offense down the stretch.
With rookie Jonah Coleman now in the picture, there is a solid chance that Dobbins is able to finally put a full season together. There is definitely more to the story with the offense than what Barnwell lets on in this write-up.
All in all, the Broncos could very well win fewer games in 2026 but still be viewed as a juggernaut and a contender. There were a ton of slim margins that went in the Broncos favor, and I'd be shocked if some of the players and coaches haven't been hearing and seeing these talks of a regression.
With another major voice predicting a Broncos regression in the 2026 season, the team got bulletin board material at the perfect time.
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