The Denver Broncos did not have to play on Thanksgiving this year, but they might have walked away from this year's slate of games as one of the big winners. Denver won't take the field until this Sunday night against the Commanders, but will do so in much better shape than they were in at the start of the week. After losing to the Broncos in Week 8, America's team did them a solid this week.
The Broncos watched the Kansas City Chiefs head to Dallas for their Week 13 matchup, and it could not have gone better for the Broncos. The Chiefs dropped their matchup 31-28, marking another close loss for a team that was all-time good in such games last season. The Chiefs also guarantee that they will remain in third place for another week, and possibly for much longer.
With their loss, the Chiefs drop to 6-6, guaranteeing that they will win no more than 11 games this year, which very likely won't be enough to take them a division crown. Barring an incredible collapse by both the Broncos and Chargers, the Chiefs' run atop the AFC West is over. For the first time since the 2015 season, a team not based out of Kansas City will win the division.
Denver's chances to win the AFC West grew on Thursday night
According to The Athletic's NFL playoff simulator, the Broncos have an 79% chance to win the AFC West into Sunday's slate of games. After their loss on Thursday in Dallas, the Chiefs' chances to win the division are down to just 5%, an unthinkably tough task for Andy Reid's team. At no point in the Patrick Mahomes era have the Chiefs been the playoff underdogs that they are now.
Beyond Denver's almost 4-in-5 chance to win the division, the Chargers' chances are put at just 16% by The Athletic. Denver is now an overwhelming favorite to bring home the divisional crown, which would be a crowning achievement in the Sean Payton era. After Payton talked all summer that he believed his team could win a Super Bowl, a division title is the logical first step in the process.
Denver has a chance to become the second AFC team to reach the 10-win plateau on Sunday night in Washington, joining just the New England Patriots. With a tenth victory, the Broncos will tie their most in the Payton era, and would be absurd favorites to finish with a top-two seed in the conference. For the Broncos, the era of Mahomes' domination appears to be over, and the Broncos have no one to thank more than themselves.