The Denver Broncos have 24 regular season games over the past two seasons, including an insane 14-win season in 2025, featuring an 11-game win streak and countless fourth quarter comebacks. This team is built to win it all, and that's likely the mindset of this team.
Anything less than a Super Bowl title is obviously not good enough, and all of a sudden, Bo Nix is just one year away from being eligible for a contract extension, so the rookie contract window is rapidly shrinking.
It's not unreasonable to think that Denver wins fewer games in 2026, but some of the latest projections to come out have disrespected this team in a new, and hilarious level.
Denver Broncos don't get a lot of love in ESPN's FPI model for 2026
There's a lot to unpack here. ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) rankings for 2026 have the Broncos sitting at 15th in the league at 1.3. What is FPI, though? ESPN's Seth Walder describes it here:
"FPI's preseason predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.
During the season, ratings updates are based on each team's performance on offense, defense and special teams -- adjusting for quality of opponent -- along with quarterback performance and changes. Game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials."
The article further talks about the Broncos in more detail:
"Denver is coming off a very impressive season, but the FPI believes regression is coming.
One major red flag was the Broncos' 12-3 record (including playoffs) in one-score games last season -- a rate that is unlikely to continue. That's not something the FPI explicitly considers, but it is the sort of thing the betting market might, which in turn affects the FPI.
Also, like Seattle, Denver is led by a stellar defense. And even though that unit looks good again on paper, odds are it won't be quite as good as it was in 2025. Plus, like with Mahomes, there is some Bo Nix injury risk baked in after the quarterback had a second procedure on his right ankle in April."
Additionally, the projections have the Broncos finishing with a 9.1-7.8 record, so, it's projecting that the Broncos win 9 games in 2026. I guess I struggle to see the argument here. The Broncos defense has been a top-5 unit two years in a row now, so why can't that still be the case in 2026?
The defense is returning many of the same key players, and the weakest position at inside linebacker saw new additions this offseason. The one-score game record appears to be the main reason why not everyone is high on the Broncos. That is something I understand, but we also have to ask ourselves why the Broncos were so good in one-score games.
It's because they're a great team.
Sure, you might wonder why the Broncos were in so many one-score games against opponents that they should have blown out, but in today's NFL, winning close is a lot more sustainable than winning in blowout fashion. I'm not sure a lot of one-score wins is necessarily a 'red flag' for this franchise.
Overall, it feels like there are more and more people/models/projections out there that are lower on the Broncos. That was the case going into year one of the Nix era, and it still felt like the case approaching the 2025 season.
All the Broncos have done is prove people wrong again and again. Given how things are trending, it feels a lot more likely that this team maintains its high level of play into 2026. On paper, there might only be one team truly more talented than Denver, the Los Angeles Rams.
Lastly, the projections give the Broncos a 53.6 percent chance too make the playoffs, a 24.4 percent chance to win the division, and a measly 6.2 percent chance to make the Super Bowl. Both Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers have higher percentages than the Broncos.
All signs point to this team, once again, being disrespected ahead of what could be another awesome season.
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