Bo Nix can improve on his deep passing for the Broncos in 2026

Using stathead.com a table can be generated to show how every quarterback performed on "deep passes" in 2025. Pro-football-reference.com defines a deep pass as a throw that is 15 yards or more from the line of scrimmage when it reaches the target. Bo Nix was below average on deep passes in 2025, but there were plenty of drops on these passes. Other sites like SISdatahub.com define a deep throw as 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. Data from both sites will be discussed in this article.

Bo Nix had the second most dropped passes in 2025 with 43. Only Trevor Lawrence had more with 45. From a rate perspective, Lawrence had 8.3 percent of his passes dropped, while Nix had 7.4 percent. Among qualifiers, these were the worst and second-worst values in the NFL in 2025. Unfortunately, there is no way to tell how many of the 43 Broncos drops happened on deep passes. No free site with play data records when a receiver drops a pass.

Bo Nix can improve on his deep passing in 2026 for the Denver Broncos

Dropped passes were not even tracked until a few years ago, and stat sites still don't agree on when an incomplete pass should be considered a drop. FTN.com says that Bo Nix only had 28 passes dropped in 2025. That is a huge discrepancy. PFR shows that Drake Maye had only 13 passes dropped (FTN shows 14). If half of Nix's drops (22) were actually caught, his completion percentage jumps from 63.4 percent to 67.0 percent. The average completion percentage in 2025 was 64.3 percent. In the football stat analysis community, PFR is trusted much more than FTN.

Assuming that all QBs had deep passes dropped at about the same rate, the data in the first table can be evaluated. Nix threw 111 deep passes in 2025 (fourth most) and completed 41 of them (10th most). His completion percentage on deep passes was 36.9 percent, which was near the bottom (30 of 39). However, if 11 of those 43 drops were on deep passes, a small number of "not dropped" deep passes can make a huge difference. Per PFR, roughly one-sixth of all of Nix's throws were deep passes in 2025.

For the sake of argument, assume that seven of those (assumed) eleven deep drops were actually caught. That moves Nix's deep completion percentage from 36.9 up to 43.2 percent. The league average on deep passes was 42.5 percent. So a few more "not drops" would have moved Bo from near the bottom to above average.

In terms of passer rating on deep passes, Nix had a rating of 75.7, which was also near the bottom. The worst deep passer in 2025 among starting QBs was Patrick Mahomes, by passer rating. He threw one TD and seven picks on deep throws. Nix threw nine TDs and seven picks on deep throws. One of the craziest things about Nix's deep throws in 2025 was that he had 41 completions and 40 first downs.

This must have been in error. That deep completion that didn't gain a first down was in the fourth quarter of the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Unless this ball bounced off a player and then was caught by Franklin, this makes no sense. So this was a recording/tagging error.

NFL.com also has long completion data. They split out the completions between passes that gained 20+ and passes that gained 40+ yards. Nix had 47 passes that gained 20+ in 2025.

SISdatahub.com shows that Nix only had 70 attempts that landed 20 or more yards from the line of scrimmage in 2025 (deep passes). So, by difference, 41 attempts were between 15-20 yards from the LOS. SIS has a passer rating stat that they call IQR. Nix had an IQR of 88 on deep throws according to them - that was 12th best. Justin Herbert led the league (min 20 deep throws) with a deep IQR of 120. That was tied with Joe Burrow. Carson Wentz had the worst at 40.

Jaylen Waddle has been quite effective on deep targets during his NFL career so far. So having him on the Broncos in 2026 should help increase Nix's deep passing, if only a little bit. Waddle has 111 deep targets in his career, with 52 catches, 47 percent, for seven touchdowns. Interestingly, fourteen of those throws were intercepted. That is usually the fault of the QB, not the receiver. All seven of those TDs were thrown by Tua Tagovailoa, and ten of the picks. Tyler Huntley threw two of the picks. Jacoby Brissett and Quinn Ewers threw the other two (one apiece).

For comparison, Courtland Sutton has 247 deep targets in his career with 48% for 18 TDs with 17 picks. Marvin Mims has 42 targets with 13 catches, 31 percent, for five TDs with three picks. Troy Franklin has 59 deep targets with 14 catches, 24 percent, for two TDs and three picks.

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