The Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 in what many are calling the biggest game for the team in the post-Super Bowl 50 era, and that does seem to be an accurate representation of the game.
If the Broncos win, their chances for the AFC West title skyrocket, but, as you can imagine, a loss makes things much more interesting down the stretch. The Chiefs have also had their bye, so once Denver is off its bye in Week 13, the true picture of the division for the stretch run will be known.
The Chiefs still might be a scary team depending on who you ask, but they are extremely beatable, and these three statistics could indicate that a victory is coming.
These stats could lead to a Denver Broncos' victory in Week 11
Chiefs allow third-highest completion percentage in the NFL (and an opposing passer rating of 93.2)
The Chiefs' defense is good, but there are ways to expose it - this unit allows the third-highest completion percentage in the NFL, which could be great for Bo Nix. The Chiefs allow 71.5% of passes they face to be completed, but they still have a good defense overall.
The thing here is that the unit, led by Steve Spagnuolo, limits the big plays down the field - that's what they excel in, but, in order to do that, you kind of have to give up a lot underneath, which is why the completion percentage is so high. The Broncos do love a lot of those underneath routes, so this could be perfect.
Bo Nix's completion percentage has also fallen this year, so getting some easy completions could be great for him mentally, and with the possibility that Marvin Mims Jr returns to the lineup, there will still be a chance to take some shots down the field.
Chiefs allow a touchdown on 63.6% of their redzone attempts, good for 23rd in the league
Kansas City's redzone defense just isn't that good, as they allow opposing offenses to score a touchdown nearly 64% of the time, which is a bottom-10 figure in the NFL. While Spagnuolo is well-known as one of the best coordinators in the NFL, his unit does lack some talent overall, and coaching can only go so far sometimes.
With this game likely being on the lower-scoring side, Denver will have to capitalize on their redzone trips, and going up against a below-average redzone defense can help with that.
Chiefs have just 20 sacks on the season, the 7th-fewest in the league
Another thing this defense does not do all that well is take down the quarterback. Overall, the pass rush just does not have much juice, and a huge indicator of a competent pass rush is how many times they can seal the deal and take the QB down. Well, the Chiefs have just 20 sacks on the season, which is the seventh-fewest in the NFL. For context, the Denver Broncos have 46 sacks on the season, which is more than double.
With the Broncos' offensive line also protecting at a high level, and Bo Nix avoiding sacks better than any QB in the league, he should have a ton of time to throw, which could allow for a much more efficient outing, which is something he and the offense need.